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The application of churn prevention represents an important step for mobile communication companies aiming at increasing customer loyalty. In a machine learning perspective, Customer Value Management departments require automated methods and processes to create marketing campaigns able to identify the most appropriate churn prevention approach. Moving towards a big data-driven environment, a deeper understanding of data provided by churn processes and client operations is needed. In this context, a procedure aiming at reducing the number of churners by planning a customized marketing campaign is deployed through a data-driven approach. Decision Tree methodology is applied to drow up a list of clients with churn propensity: in this way, customer analysis is detailed, as well as the development of a marketing campaign, integrating the individual churn model with viral churn perspective. The first step of the proposed procedure requires the evaluation of churn probability for each customer, based on the influence of his social links. Then, the customer profiling is performed considering (a) individual variables, (b) variables describing customer-company interactions, (c) external variables. The main contribution of this work is the development of a versatile procedure for viral churn prevention, applying Decision Tree techniques in the telecommunication sector, and integrating a direct campaign from the Customer Value Management marketing department to each customer with significant churn risk. A case study of a mobile communication company is also presented to explain the proposed procedure, as well as to analyze its real performance and results.
Wydawca
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
38--47
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 29 poz., rys., wykr.
Twórcy
autor
- Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e Scienze Matematiche, Universit`a Politecnica Delle Marche, Italy
autor
- Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e Scienze Matematiche, Universit`a Politecnica Delle Marche, Italy
autor
- Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e Scienze Matematiche, Universit`a Politecnica Delle Marche, Via Brecce Bianche, 12, 60131, Ancona, Italy
autor
- Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e Scienze Matematiche, Universit`a Politecnica Delle Marche, Italy
Bibliografia
- [1] Verhoef P.C., Doorn J., Dorotic M., Customer value Management: An overview and research agenda, Marketing ZFP, 29, 2, 105–122, 2015.
- [2] Wei C.P., Chiu I.T., Turning telecommunications call details to churn prediction: a data mining approach, Expert Syst. Appl., 23, 2, 103–12, 2002.
- [3] Khan M.R., Manoj J., Singh A., Blumenstock J., Behavioral modeling for churn prediction: Early indicators and accurate predictors of custom defection and loyalty, IEEE International Congress on BigData, pp. 677–680, 2015.
- [4] Lu N., Lin H., Lu J., Zhang G., A customer churn prediction model in telecom industry using boosting, IEEE Trans. Ind. Informat., 10, 2, 1659–1665, 2014.
- [5] Tiwari A., Sam R., Shaikh S., Analysis and prediction of churn customers for telecommunication industry, International conference on I-SMAC, pp. 218–222, 2017.
- [6] Limaye G.D., Chaudhary J.P., Punjabi S.K., Churn Prediction using MapReduce and HBase, International Journal on Recent and Innovation Trends in Computing and Communication, 3, 3, 1699–1703, 2015.
- [7] Caruana A., The impact of switching costs on customer loyalty: A study among corporate customers of mobile telephony, Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing, 12, 3, 256–268, 2003.
- [8] Antomarioni S., Bevilacqua M., Potena D., Diamantini C., Defining a data-driven maintenance policy: an application to an oil refinery plant, International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, 36, 3, 2018.
- [9] Bi W., Cai M., Liu M., Li G., A Big Data Clustering Algorithm for Mitigating the Risk of Customer Churn, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics, 12, 3, 1270–1281, 2006.
- [10] Bevilacqua M., Ciarapica F.E., Diamantini C., Potena D., Big data analytics methodologies applied at energy management in industrial sector: A case study, International Journal of RF Technologies: Research and Applications, 8, 3, 105–122, 2017.
- [11] Huang Y., Zhu F., Yuan M., Deng K., Li Y., Ni B., Dai W., Yang Q., Zeng J., Telco Churn Prediction with Big Data, Proceedings of the 2015 ACM SIGMOD International Conference on Management of Data, pp. 607–618, 2015.
- [12] Diaz-Aviles E., Pinelli F., Lynch K., Nabi Z., Gkoufas Y., Bouillet E., Calabrese F., Towards real-time customer experience prediction for telecommunication operator, International Conference on Big Data (Big Data), pp. 1063–1072, 2015.
- [13] Amin A., Anwar S., Adnan A., Nawaz M., Alawfi K., Hussain A., Huang K., Customer churn prediction in the telecommunication sector using a rough set approach, Neurocomputing, 237, 242–254, 2016.
- [14] Do D., Huynh P., Vo P., Vu T., Customer Churn Prediction in an Internet Service Provider, IEEE International Conference on Big Data, pp. 3928–3933, 2017.
- [15] Subramanya K.B., Somani A., Enhanced Feature Mining and Classifier Models to Predict Customer Churn for an E-retailer, Graduate Theses and Dissertations, 2016.
- [16] Shirazia F., Mohammadib M., A big data analytics model for customer churn prediction in the retiree segment, International Journal of Information Management, 48, 238–253, 2019.
- [17] Cui S., Ding N., Customer Churn Prediction Using Improved FCM Algorithm, 3rd International Conference on Information Management, pp. 112–117, 2017.
- [18] Sayed H., Abdel-Fattah M.A., Kholief S., Predicting Potential Banking Customer Churn using Apache Spark ML and MLlib Packages: A Comparative Study, International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 9, 11, 674–677, 2018.
- [19] Moeyersoms J., Martens D., Including high-cardinality attributes in predictive models: A case study in churn prediction in the energy sector, Decision Support Systems, 72, 72–81, 2015.
- [20] Zhang Z., Wang R., Zheng W., Lan S., Liang D., Jin H., Profit Maximization Analysis Based on Data Mining and the Exponential Retention Model Assumption with respect to Customer Churn Problems, IEEE 15th International Conference on Data Mining Workshops, pp. 1093–1097, 2015.
- [21] Sabbeh S.F., Machine-Learning Techniques for Customer Retention: A Comparative Study, International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications (IJACSA), 9, 2, 273–281, 2018.
- [22] Ahmad A.K., Jafar A., Aljoumaa K., Customer churn prediction in telecom using machine learning in big data platform, Journal of Big Data, 6, 28, 2019.
- [23] Mahajan V., Misra R., Mahajan R., Review of Data Mining Techniques for Churn Prediction in Telecom, JIOS 2015, 37, 2, 183–197, 2015.
- [24] Junxiang L., Predicting Customer Churn in the Telecommunications Industry – An Application of Survival Analysis Modeling Using SAS, Data Mining Techniques, 2002.
- [25] Tsai C.F., Lu Y.H., Customer churn prediction by hybrid neural networks, Expert Syst. Appl., 36, 12547–12553, 2009.
- [26] Hung S.Y., Yen D.C., Wang H., Applying data mining to telecom churn management, Expert Syst. Appl., 31, 515–524, 2006.
- [27] Ciarapica F.E., Bevilacqua M., Antomarioni S., An approach based on association rules and social network analysis for managing environmental risk: A case study from a process industry, Process Safety and Environ. Protection, 128, 50–64, 2019.
- [28] Antomarioni S., Pisacane O., Potena D., Bevilacqua M., Ciarapica F.E., Diamantini C., A predictive association rule-based maintenance policy to minimize the probability of breakages: application to an oil refinery, International Journal of Advanced Manuf. Technology, pp. 1–15, 2019.
- [29] Ciarapica F.E., Bevilacqua M., Mazzuto G., Performance analysis of new product development projects: An approach based on value stream mapping, Int. Journal of Productivity and Perf. Management, 65, 2, 177–206, 2016.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
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