Impact assessment of climate change on water resources in the upstream of a Tunisian RAMSAR heritage site (Ichkeul Lake) using HEC-HMS model

Mosbahi, Manel; Nasraoui, Soumya; Khélifa, Walid Ben

doi:10.1007/s11600-024-01377-5

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Tytuł artykułu

Impact assessment of climate change on water resources in the upstream of a Tunisian RAMSAR heritage site (Ichkeul Lake) using HEC-HMS model

Autorzy

Mosbahi Manel , Nasraoui Soumya , Khélifa Walid Ben

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

https://www.springer.com/journal/11600

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-024-01377-5

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

Climate change is one of the most important global challenges of this century, with significant impacts on water resources, economic development and ecological health. This study aimed to investigate the effect of climate change on streamflow in Joumine watershed, upstream the Ichkeul Lake, a RAMSAR wetland and the most productive ecosystems in Tunisia and the Mediterranean. The hydrologic response of the basin was simulated based on Hydrologic Modelling System HEC-HMS. Climate data were generated from the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from the Irish Regional Climate Model (RCM) for the periods 2030-2060 and 2061-2100. The statistical analysis showed that model performance is satisfactory, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.7 and 0.64 for calibration and validation, respectively. The climate projections exhibited a declining trend in precipitation during the two future periods with more frequent extreme rainfall events in dry season and a rise in temperature which is more accentuated during the period 2061-2100. Climate change is expected to have profound impacts on water resources and resilience of ecosystems. Results showed that Joumine basin is projected to experience reduction in streamflow which is more pronounced under RCP8.5. The frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes are expected to be intensified, notably during the far future period, leading to pressure on water availability in the end of the twenty-first century. Hence, sustainable water resources management is needed to close the water demand and supply gap in the Joumine river basin.

Słowa kluczowe

climate change HEC-HMS Tunisia water resources rainfall-runoff model

zmiany klimatu HEC-HMS Tunezja zasoby wodne model opad-odpływ

Wydawca

Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Springer

Czasopismo

Acta Geophysica

Rocznik

2025

Tom

Vol. 73, no. 1

Strony

687--700

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 54 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Mosbahi Manel

manel.mosbahi@iresa.agrinet.tn

University of Carthage, Higher School of Agriculture, LR03AGR02, Research Laboratory of Agricultural Production Systems and Sustainable Development, 1121 Zaghouane, Tunisia

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7930-1783

autor

Nasraoui Soumya

University of Carthage, Higher School of Agriculture, LR03AGR02, Research Laboratory of Agricultural Production Systems and Sustainable Development, 1121 Zaghouane, Tunisia

autor

Khélifa Walid Ben

Centre for Water Research and Technologies Technopark Borj-Cedria, Tourist Route of Soliman, PO-box N^273, 8020 Soliman, Tunisia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki (2025).

Typ dokumentu

Bibliografia

Identyfikator YADDA

bwmeta1.element.baztech-ed7c9bc9-b78e-45ed-9d06-86faafa9ed63