Statistical assessment of rainfall variability and trends in northeastern Algeria

• Autorzy: Merniz Noureddine , Tahar Ali , Benmehaia Amine M.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/jwld-2019-0009

Warianty tytułu

PL

Statystyczna ocena zmienności i trendów opadu w północnowschodniej Algierii

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In the present study, time series for annual, monthly rainfall and number of rainy days per year were analysed to quantify spatial variability and temporal trends for 22 rainfall stations distributed in northeastern Algeria for the period 1978– 2010. The Mann–Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator were applied to assess the significance and magnitude of the trend. The results showed that precipitation decreases spatially from North to South and from East to West. The application of the Mann–Kendall test (for 0.05% threshold) to the time series data showed that for annual precipitation, no station showed statistically significant trends, unlike the number of rainy days, where there was a significant negative trend in four stations (Jijel, Constantine, Oum El Bouaghi and Tébessa). For the monthly time series, significant positive trends were observed during the months of September in the coastal stations and July for the plateaus and southern Saharan Atlas stations, while significant negative trends were recorded during the months of February and March for the stations of the extreme East in the study area. These results revealed that for the period analysed, there was no significant climate change in northeastern Algeria but there is a seasonal delay having important agroecological implications.

PL

W przedstawionych badaniach analizowano serie rocznych i miesięcznych opadów oraz liczbę dni z deszczem w ciągu roku celem ustalenia przestrzennej zmienności i czasowych trendów w latach 1978–2010 dla 22 stacji pomiarowych rozmieszczonych w północnowschodniej Algierii. Wykorzystano test Manna–Kendalla i estymator Sena do oceny istotności i rozmiaru trendu. Wyniki dowodzą, że opady malały z północy na południe i ze wschodu na zachód. Zastosowanie testu Manna–Kendalla (p < 0,05) do serii danych pomiarowych nie wykazały w żadnej stacji statystycznie istotnych trendów dla rocznych opadów w przeciwieństwie do liczby dni z opadem, które cechował istotny negatywny trend w czterech stacjach pomiarowych (Jijel, Constantine, Oum El Bouaghi i Tébessa). Analiza serii miesięcznych opadów dowiodła występowania dodatniego trendu w odniesieniu do sierpnia w stacjach na wybrzeżu i w odniesieniu do lipca w stacjach na płaskowyżach i w południowym Atlasie Saharyjskim. Istotny trend ujemny uzyskano w przypadku lutego i marca w stacjach na wschodzie badanego obszaru. Wyniki dowodzą, że w analizowanym okresie nie stwierdzono istotnych zmian klimatu w północnowschodniej Algierii, z wyjątkiem sezonowych opóźnień, które wywołują ważne skutki agro-ekologiczne.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

climate change; Mann-Kendall test; northeastern Algeria; precipitation; rainfall trend

PL

opad; północnowschodnia Algieria; test Manna-Kendalla; trend; zmiana klimatu

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo ITP
• Czasopismo: Journal of Water and Land Development
• Rocznik: 2019
• Tom: no. 40
• Strony: 87--96
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 57 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Merniz Noureddine

• University Frères Mentouri, Faculty of Nature and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Plant Ecology, Constantine I, 25017 Constantine, Algeria

autor

Tahar Ali

• University of Badji Moukhtar, Department of Biology, Plant Biology and Environment Research Laboratory, Annaba, Algeria

autor

Benmehaia Amine M.

• University of Biskra, Department of Agricultural Sciences, Algeria

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2019).