Analysis of trend rainfall: Case of North-Eastern Algeria

• Autorzy: Mrad D. , Djebbar Y. , Hammar Y.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/jwld-2018-0011

Warianty tytułu

PL

Analiza tendencji opadów – przykład północno-wschodniej Algierii

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The climatic change is a reality largely recognized today in the scientific community. Nevertheless, its impact on precipitation, especially on annual, monthly and seasonally rainfall in arid and semi-arid regions is not yet certain. Indeed, very few studies have dealt with this matter in Algeria. In this context to examine spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall an attempt has been made using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. Trends and magnitude estimate of change in rainfall series were detected by Mann–Kendall tests and Sen's test slope, has been applied to the data registered of 35 stations in the watershed Constantinois Seybouse Mellegue (CSM) North-Eastern Algeria over a period of 43 years (1969–2012). Results from spatial plot of annual rainfall showed that the rainfall increases with altitude, but is higher for the stations exposed to moist winds. It also increases from east to west and conversely decreases as one moves away from the coast to the south. From statistical method showed that there are increase trends at 95% confidence at annual scale in some rainfall stations with high altitude and coastal stations during winter season.

PL

Zmiana klimatu jest faktem powszechnie uznawanym obecnie przez społeczność naukową. Mimo to jej wpływ na opady, szczególnie na roczny, miesięczny i sezonowy opad na obszarach klimatu suchego i półsuchego, nie jest jeszcze dobrze rozpoznany. Do tej pory tylko kilka badań w Algierii dotyczyło tej kwestii. W związku z tym podjęto próbę zbadania przestrzennego rozmieszczenia rocznych i sezonowych opadów za pomocą metody odwrotnej odległości (IDW – ang. inverse distance weighting). Trendy i wielkość oszacowanych zmian w seriach opadów analizowano testem Manna–Kendalla, a test nachylenia Sena użyto do danych zgromadzonych w 35 posterunkach opadowych w zlewni Constantinois Seybouse Mellegue (CSM) w północno- -wschodniej Algierii w ciągu 43 lat (1969–2012). Wyniki analiz przestrzennego rozkładu rocznych opadów wykazały, że opad rośnie wraz z wysokością nad poziomem morza i jest większy w stanowiskach eksponowanych na wilgotne wiatry. Opad rośnie ze wschodu na zachód, a maleje od wybrzeża w kierunku południowym. Metody statystyczne ujawniły rosnący (przedział ufności 95%) trend opadów w niektórych posterunkach na dużych wysokościach i w posterunkach przybrzeżnych w okresie zimy.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

climate change; Mann–Kendall test; North-Eastern Algeria; rainfall; trend

PL

opad; północno-wschodnia Algieria; test Manna-Kendalla; trend; zmiana klimatu

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo ITP
• Czasopismo: Journal of Water and Land Development
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: no. 36
• Strony: 105--115
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 42 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Mrad D.

• University of Badji Mokhtar, Faculty of Engineering Science, Department of Hydraulics, Annaba, Algeria, University Mohamed Cherif Mesaadia, Laboratory of Research Infra-Res, Souk Ahras, Algeria

autor

Djebbar Y.

• University Mohamed Cherif Mesaadia, Laboratory of Research Infra-Res, Souk Ahras, Algeria

autor

Hammar Y.

• University of Badji Mokhtar, Faculty of Engineering Science, Department of Hydraulics, Annaba, Algeria

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2018).