Rumours related to political instability and their impact on IPOs : the use of qualitative modelling with incomplete knowledge

• Autorzy: Meluzin T. , Pietrzak M. B. , Balcerzak A. P. , Zinecker M. , Doubravsky K. , Dohnal M.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.17512/pjms.2017.16.2.15

Warianty tytułu

PL

Plotki związane z niestabilnością polityczną i ich wpływ na pierwszą ofertę publiczną : wykorzystanie modelowania jakościowego z niepełną wiedzą

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper deals with propagation of rumours linked to political instability within going public procedure. Rumours affect the decision making significantly because of information asymmetry. Firstly, a team of experts identified a set of 9 macroeconomic variables that are likely to be affected by political instability in a country. Next, a qualitative model was developed. The result is represented by 25 scenarios and their qualitative solutions. The transitional graph represents all possible transitions among the 108 scenarios. Although no of the rumours is under control of the investor, if timely detected, any damages can be averted.

PL

Niniejszy artykuł dotyczy propagowania plotek związanych z niestabilnością polityczną w ramach procedury oferty publicznej. Pogłoski wpływają znacząco na podejmowanie decyzji z powodu asymetrii informacyjnej. Po pierwsze, zespół ekspertów zidentyfikował zestaw 9 zmiennych makroekonomicznych, na które prawdopodobnie wpłynie niestabilność polityczna w danym kraju. Następnie opracowano model jakościowy. Wynik jest reprezentowany przez 25 scenariuszy i ich jakościowe rozwiązania. Przejściowy wykres przedstawia wszystkie możliwe przejścia pomiędzy 108 scenariuszami. Chociaż żadna z plotek nie znajduje się pod kontrolą inwestora, jeśli zostanie wykryta w odpowiednim czasie, wszelkie szkody mogą zostać ograniczone.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

macroeconomics; politics; rumours; going public; qualitative models; scenarios

PL

makroekonomia; polityka; plotki; upublicznianie; modele jakościowe; scenariusze

• Wydawca: Czestochowa University of Technology
• Czasopismo: Polish Journal of Management Studies
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 16, No. 2
• Strony: 171--187
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 48 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Meluzin T.

• Brno University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Management

autor

Pietrzak M. B.

• Nicolaus Copernicus University, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management

autor

Balcerzak A. P.

• Nicolaus Copernicus University, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management

autor

Zinecker M.

• Brno University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Management

autor

Doubravsky K.

• Brno University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Management

autor

Dohnal M.

• Brno University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Management

Bibliografia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (zadania 2017).