Analysis of future climate scenarios and their impact on agriculture in eastern Arkansas, United States

• Autorzy: Magugu J. W. , Feng S. , Huang Q. , Zhang Y. , West G. H.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/jwld-2018-0029

Warianty tytułu

PL

Analiza scenariuszy klimatycznych i ich wpływ na rolnictwo we wschodniej części Arkansas

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Impact of climate change on crop growth is dynamic and difficult to quantify due to heterogeneity of the associated effects and their interactions within the Earth system. The main objective of this study is to establish how future climate change might affect agriculture, through an assessment of temperature and precipitation driven parameters. These include percentage number of rainy days with extreme precipitation, percentage of extreme precipitation relative to wet days, first fall frost days, last spring frost days, growing degree days, growing season length and the total precipitation. Results show modest increase in total precipitation with a slight increase in extreme precipitation, representing up to 2.2% increase by 2060 under representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. There would be late first fall frost days, early last spring frost days and increased growing season length by up to 2 weeks in 2060. The growing degree days are projected to increase under all scenarios for all crops, with cotton showing the largest increase of up to 37% relative to the baseline period.

PL

Wpływ zmian klimatu na wzrost upraw jest dynamiczny i trudny do ilościowej oceny z powodu różnorodności powiązanych efektów i ich interakcji w całym systemie Ziemi. Głównym celem badań prezentowanych w niniejszej pracy było ustalenie, jak zmiany klimatu w przyszłości mogą wpłynąć na rolnictwo, na podstawie oceny parametrów związanych z temperaturą i opadami. Analizowano następujące parametry: udział (w %) dni deszczowych z ekstremalnym opadem, udział ekstremalnych opadów w stosunku do opadów ogółem, pierwsze jesienne dni z mrozem, ostatnie wiosenne dni z mrozem, stopniodni w sezonie wegetacyjnym, długość sezonu wegetacyjnego, i sumę opadów. Wyniki wykazują umiarkowany wzrost całkowitych opadów i niewielki wzrost opadów ekstremalnych – do 2,2% do roku 2060 wg scenariusza Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5). W 2060 roku pierwsze jesienne dni z mrozem wystąpią później, ostatnie wiosenne dni z mrozem wystąpią wcześniej, a sezon wegetacyjny wydłuży się o ok. 2 tygodnie. Zgodnie ze wszystkimi scenariuszami przewiduje się, że liczba stopniodni w sezonie wegetacyjnym zwiększy się dla wszystkich upraw, a największy przyrost (maksymalnie o 37%) w stosunku do okresu bazowego prognozuje się dla upraw bawełny.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

agriculture; climate change; climate scenarios; precipitation; temperature

PL

opady; rolnictwo; scenariusze klimatyczne; temperatura; zmiany klimatu

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo ITP
• Czasopismo: Journal of Water and Land Development
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: no. 37
• Strony: 97--112
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 64 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Magugu J. W.

• University of Arkansas, 615 N Court St, 72701 Carlisle, USA

autor

Feng S.

• University of Arkansas, 615 N Court St, 72701 Carlisle, USA

autor

Huang Q.

• University of Arkansas, 615 N Court St, 72701 Carlisle, USA

autor

Zhang Y.

• University of Arkansas, 615 N Court St, 72701 Carlisle, USA

autor

West G. H.

• University of Arkansas, 615 N Court St, 72701 Carlisle, USA

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