Method of forecasting and calculation of electric load of utilities and household consumers under uncertainty

• Autorzy: Tavarov Saidjon Shiralievich , Khatib Ziad El , Kamalov Firuz , Sidorov Aleksandr Ivanovich , Valeev Rustam Galimyanovich , Safaraliev Murodbek Kholnazarovich

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.15199/48.2024.04.28

Warianty tytułu

PL

Metoda prognozowania i obliczania obciążenia elektrycznego zakładów użyteczności publicznej i odbiorców domowych w warunkach niepewności

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Our goal in this article is to study the consistency of the actual power consumption with the calculated consumption in distributed electrical networks with a predominance of household consumers in several cities. We analyse the correspondence between the specific electrical load established by regulatory documents and the actual load for a single apartment according to power consumption in several cities. The discrepancy between the actual electrical load on an apartment and its standard value established by the current regulatory documents, which amounted to - negative 48% to 300%. To improve the accuracy of electricity consumption forecast and calculation of electrical loads, a new indicator is proposed - the generalized uncertainty coefficient 𝐴௜, the value of which is given for the period under consideration. Thus, using the specified coefficient, methods are proposed for predicting power consumption in electrical distribution networks with a predominance of domestic consumers and calculating electrical loads. When using the developed methods, deviations in forecast calculations in relative terms will not exceed 10%.

PL

Celem jest zbadanie zgodności rzeczywistego zużycia energii z obliczonym w dystrybucyjnych sieciach elektrycznych z przewagą odbiorców domowych w wielu miastach. Aby zbadać zgodność między określonym obciążeniem elektrycznym ustalonym w dokumentach regulacyjnych a rzeczywistym obciążeniem dla jednego mieszkania w zależności od zużycia energii w wielu miastach. Rozbieżność między faktycznym obciążeniem elektrycznym mieszkania a jego standardową wartością ustaloną w aktualnych dokumentach regulacyjnych, która wyniosła - minus 48 do 300%. Aby poprawić dokładność prognozy zużycia energii elektrycznej i obliczania obciążeń elektrycznych, proponuje się nowy wskaźnik - uogólniony współczynnik niepewności A_i, którego wartość podano dla rozważanego okresu. Tak więc, stosując określony współczynnik, proponuje się metody przewidywania zużycia energii w sieciach dystrybucji energii elektrycznej z przewagą odbiorców krajowych i obliczania obciążeń elektrycznych. Przy stosowaniu opracowanych metod odchylenia w obliczeniach prognoz w kategoriach względnych nie przekroczą 10%.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

electrical load; power consumption; generalized uncertainty coefficient; specific load

PL

obciążenie elektryczne; zużycie energii; uogólniony współczynnik niepewności; obciążenie właściwe

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo SIGMA-NOT
• Czasopismo: Przegląd Elektrotechniczny
• Rocznik: 2024
• Tom: R. 100, nr 4
• Strony: 148--151
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 27 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Tavarov Saidjon Shiralievich

• South-Ural State University (national research university), Prospekt Lenin, 76, Chelyabinsk, 454080, Russian Federation

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2875-2752

autor

Khatib Ziad El

• Canadian University Dubai, Dubai 117781, United Arab Emirates

autor

Kamalov Firuz

• Canadian University Dubai, Dubai 117781, United Arab Emirates

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3946-0920

autor

Sidorov Aleksandr Ivanovich

• South-Ural State University (national research university), Prospekt Lenin, 76, Chelyabinsk, 454080, Russian Federation

autor

Valeev Rustam Galimyanovich

• South-Ural State University (national research university), Prospekt Lenin, 76, Chelyabinsk, 454080, Russian Federation

autor

Safaraliev Murodbek Kholnazarovich

• Ural Federal University, 19, Mira Street, Yekaterinburg, 620002, Russian Federation

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3433-9742

Bibliografia

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• [25] Tavarov S.S et al., Evaluation of the Operating Modes of the Urban Electric Networks in Dushanbe City, Tajikistan, Inventions, (2022), 7, 107
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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2025).