Selected polynomial identification techniques to evaluate maritime transport trends around Covid-19

• Autorzy: Borucka Anna , Kozłowski Edward

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.20858/sjsutst.2023.120.4

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The Covid-19 pandemic has drastically affected the transport sector, because of the restrictions introduced to limit the spread of the threat. They concerned primarily passenger traffic, but trade in goods also faced completely new challenges, related to increased consumption and the dynamic development of e-commerce on the one hand and restrictions related to the pandemic and sealing borders on the other. One of the most susceptible to fluctuations in international trade is the maritime economy, which has been analysed in this article. It was checked how the global threat affected sea traffic in terms of gross weight of goods handled in main ports. The aim of the study was to characterize the impact of the pandemic on sea transport depending on the type of ship and to evaluate the current state of sea transport in the context of the level shaped by forecasts based on observations from before the coronavirus pandemic. The authors' assumption was to check whether the rail transport market has already reached the level it could reach in the absence of the virus threat. The use of a polynomial function was proposed for the study. Time series containing observations up to the outbreak of the pandemic and forecasts based on them, as well as time series containing additional observations from the pandemic period were analysed. The study results obtained allowed to conclude how the global crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic affected the cargo traffic in the sea transport, expressed by the mass of goods transshipped in major ports, depending on the individual types of ships.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

sea transport; Covid-19 pandemic; cargo ships; polynomial function

PL

transport morski; pandemia Covid-19; statki towarowe; funkcja wielomianowa

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo Politechniki Śląskiej
• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe. Transport / Politechnika Śląska
• Rocznik: 2023
• Tom: z. 120
• Strony: 51--68
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 55 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Borucka Anna

• Faculty of Security, Logistics and Management, Military University of Technology, Kaliskiego 2 Street, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7892-9640

autor

Kozłowski Edward

• Faculty of Management, Lublin University of Technology, Nadbystrzycka 38, 20-618 Lublin, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7147-4903

Bibliografia

• 1. Adamkiewicz Andrzej, Piotr Nikończuk. 2022. "An attempt at applying machine learning in diagnosing marine ship engine turbochargers". Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability 24(4): 795-804. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17531/ein.2022.4.19.
• 2. Adrienne Nena, Lucy Budd, Stephen Ison. 2020."Grounded aircraft: An airfield operations perspective of the challenges of resuming flights post COVID." Journal of Air Transport Management 89: 101921.
• 3. Bodolica Virginia, Martin Spraggon, Nada Khaddage-Soboh. 2021. "Air-travel services industry in the post-COVID-19: The GPS (Guard-Potentiate-Shape) model for crisis navigation." Tourism Review 76(4): 942-961.
• 4. Borucka Anna, et al. 2020 "Predictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in Poland." Open Engineering 11(1): 142-150.
• 5. Bulková Zdenka, Milan Dedík, Jozef Gašparík, Rudolf Kampf. 2022. "Framework proposal for solving problems in railway transport during the COVID-19 pandemic." Transport Technic and Technology 18.1: 1-8.
• 6. Czermański Ernest. 2021. Sea transport in the era of a pandemic. Pomeranian Economic Review.
• 7. Dembińska Izabela, et al. 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Volume of Fuel Supplies to EU Countries." Energies 15(22): 8439. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en15228439.
• 8. Depellegrin Daniel, et al. 2020. "The effects of COVID-19 induced lockdown measures on maritime settings of a coastal region." Science of the Total Environment 740: 140123.
• 9. European Environment Agency. 2021. European Maritime Transport Environmental Report 2021. Luxembourg.
• 10. Eurostat. “Eu level - gross weight of goods handled in main ports, by type of cargo, quarterly data, 2005-Q1 - 2022-Q2”.
• 11. Eurostat. “Goods transported, quarterly data, 2004-Q1 - 2022-Q3”.
• 12. Eurostat. “Passengers transported, quarterly data, 2004-Q1 - 2022-Q3”.
• 13. Eurostat. “Summary of quarterly road freight transport by type of operation and type of transport, 1990-Q1 - 2022-Q2”.
• 14. Finke Nils, et al. 2020. "Investigating matureness of probabilistic graphical models for dry-bulk shipping." International Conference on Probabilistic Graphical Models. PMLR.
• 15. Flight Global FlightGlobal Raport, 2022. “Airlines to lose over $200bn between 2020-22 as IATA flags deeper Covid hit”.
• 16. Gkiotsalitis Konstantinos, Oded Cats. 2021. "Public transport planning adaption under the COVID-19 pandemic crisis: literature review of research needs and directions." Transport Reviews 41(3): 374-392.
• 17. Hamilton-Paterson J. 994. “Time series analysis”, Princeton Univers. Press, 1. ISBN-10: 0691042896.
• 18. IATA Economics. IATA Monthly Statistics.
• 19. ICAO Report. 2023. “Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Civil Aviation: Economic Impact Analysis”. Canada.
• 20. Karatuğ Çağlar, Yalçın Durmuşoğlu. 2020. "Design of a solar photovoltaic system for a Ro-Ro ship and estimation of performance analysis: a case study." Solar Energy 207: 1259-1268.
• 21. Kim Suhyeon, et al. 2021. "A multi-stage data mining approach for liquid bulk cargo volume analysis based on bill of lading data." Expert Systems with Applications 183: 115304.
• 22. Kozłowski E. 2015. Analiza i identyfikacja szeregów czasowych. [In Polish: Analysis and identification of time series]. Lublin University of Technology.
• 23. Kukulski Jacek, Konrad Lewczuk, Ignacy Góra, Mariusz Wasiak. 2023. "Methodological aspects of risk mapping in multimode transport systems". Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability 25(1): 19. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17531/ein.2023.1.19.
• 24. Lee Tae-Hwy, Halbert White, Clive WJ Granger. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models: A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests." 1993. Journal of econometrics 56(3): 269-290. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(93)90122-l.
• 25. Li Siping, Zhou Yaoming, Kundu Tanmoy, Zhang Fangni, 2021. "Impact of entry restriction policies on international air transport connectivity during COVID-19 pandemic." Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 152: 102411.
• 26. Lyridis Dimitrios, Panayotis Zacharioudakis. 2012. "Liquid bulk shipping." The Blackwell Companion to Maritime Economics: 205-229.
• 27. Majowicz Anna. 2021. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on intermodal transport. Polish Institute of Road Transport.
• 28. Ministry of Maritime Economy and Inland Navigation. 2020. “Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on selected aspects of the global shipping industry - container transport”.
• 29. Moriarty Leah F., et al. 2020. "Public health responses to COVID-19 outbreaks on cruise ships – worldwide, February-March 2020." Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 69(12): 347.
• 30. Narasimha Prathvi Thumbe, Pradyot Ranjan Jena, Ritanjali Majhi. 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on the Indian seaport transportation and maritime supply chain." Transport Policy 110: 191-203.
• 31. Oszczypała, Mateusz, Jarosław Ziółkowski, Jerzy Małachowski. 2023. "Semi-Markov approach for reliability modelling of light utility vehicles". Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability: 25(2). DOI: https://doi.org/10.17531/ein/161859.
• 32. Pallis Athanasios A. (ed.) 2021. "COVID-19 and maritime transport: Impact and responses." United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
• 33. Palm Matthew, et al. 2022. "Facing the future of transit ridership: shifting attitudes towards public transit and auto ownership among transit riders during COVID-19." Transportation: 1-27.
• 34. Pere P. Suau-Sanchez, Augusto Voltes-Dorta, Natàlia Cugueró-Escofet. 2020. "An early assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on air transport: Just another crisis or the end of aviation as we know it?" Journal of Transport Geography 86: 102749.
• 35. Ramsey James Bernard. 1969. "Tests for specification errors in classical linear least‐squares regression analysis." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological) 31(2): 350-371. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1969.tb00796.x.
• 36. Raporty mobilności Google. [In Polish: Goggles mobility reports]. Available at: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/.
• 37. Recovery IEA Sustainable. 2020. World energy outlook special report in collaboration with the international monetary Fund.
• 38. Shortall Ruth, Niek Mouter, Bert Van Wee. 2022. "COVID-19 passenger transport measures and their impacts." Transport Reviews 42(4): 441-466.
• 39. Shumway Robert H., David S. Stoffer, David S. Stoffer. 2000. Time series analysis and its applications. Vol. 3. New York: Springer.
• 40. Sun Xiaoqian, Wandelt Sebastian, Zheng Changhong, Zhang Anming. 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane." Journal of Air Transport Management 94: 102062.
• 41. Sun, X., S. Wandelt, C. Zheng, A. Zhang. 2021. “COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane”. Journal of Air Transport Management 94: 102062.
• 42. Tirachini Alejandro, Oded Cats. 2020. "COVID-19 and public transportation: Current assessment, prospects, and research needs." Journal of Public Transportation 22(1): 1-21.
• 43. Tzvetkova Svetla. 2021. „Wpływ COVID-19 na transport lądowy w Unii Europejskiej oraz wytyczne dotyczące jego stabilnego rozwoju”. [In Polish: “The influence of Covid-19 on land transport in the European Union and guidelines for its stable development”]. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 10(4): 20. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2021.v10n4p20.
• 44. UNCTAD/RMT/2021. Review of maritime transport 2021. United Nations, Geneva. 2021.
• 45. Vickerman Roger. 2021. "Will Covid-19 put the public back in public transport? A UK perspective." Transport Policy 103: 95-102.
• 46. Wang Qinghu, Deyu Wang. 2020. "Ultimate strength envelope of a 10,000 TEU large container ship subjected to combined loads: From compartment model to global hull girder." Ocean Engineering 213: 107767.
• 47. Wang Qinghu, et al. 2020. "Experimental and numerical investigations of the ultimate torsional strength of an ultra large container ship." Marine Structures 70: 102695.
• 48. Woodward Wayne A., Henry L. Gray, Alan C. Elliott. 2017. Applied time series analysis with R. CRC press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315161143.
• 49. Wooldridge J. 2019. Introductory econometrics. Cengage Learning, Inc.
• 50. Yang Jialin, Ying-En Ge, Kevin X. Li. 2022. "Measuring volatility spillover effects in dry bulk shipping market." Transport Policy 125: 37-47.
• 51. Zabielska, Aleksandra, Marianna Jacyna, Michał Lasota, Karol Nehring. 2023. "Evaluation of the efficiency of the delivery process in the technical object of transport infrastructure with the application of a simulation model". Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability 25(1). DOI: https://doi.org/10.17531/ein.2023.1.1.
• 52. Zhang Junyi, et al. 2021. "Effects of transport-related COVID-19 policy measures: A case study of six developed countries." Transport Policy 110: 37-57.
• 53. Zhang Junyi, Hayashi Yoshitsugu, D. Frank Lawrence. 2021. "COVID-19 and transport: Findings from a world-wide expert survey." Transport policy 103: 68-85.
• 54. Ziółkowska Paulina. 2021. “Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the functioning of road transport, with particular emphasis on the transport of cereal products”. Scientific Journals of the Warsaw University of Life Sciences. Economics and Organization of Logistics 6(3).
• 55. Ziółkowski Jarosław, Aleksandra Lęgas, Elżbieta Szymczyk, Jerzy Małachowski, Mateusz Oszczypała, Joanna Szkutnik-Rogoż. 2022. "Optimization of the Delivery Time within the Distribution Network, Taking into Account Fuel Consumption and the Level of Carbon Dioxide Emissions into the Atmosphere." Energies 15(14): 5198. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en15145198.