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Analysis of temporal evolution of tourist visits to the Morón de la Frontera region (Spain). Two possible explanatory variables of this evolution

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Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The municipality of Morón de la Frontera located in the province of Seville (Spain) has been promoting tourist visits in recent years, measured through the number of visitors, as another public and private income source. This number, considered at a monthly or annual level, is a good indicator of the tourist evolution of the municipality and, for this reason, in this work, it is chosen as an objective variable, in the sense of trying to explain it from nearby variables. Then, for the said variable, we carry out a TRAMO analysis, reflecting its trend and showing its seasonality. Also, a regression analysis with the objective variable explained by the time series measures the number of monthly visitors to the province of Seville, resulting in a positive and significant correlation of 0.4914 between both series. And, finally, a regression analysis where the objective variable, this time measured at an annual level, is explained by the GDP of the province of Seville, showing a positive and significant correlation, 0.489.
Rocznik
Strony
17--31
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 22 poz., rys.
Twórcy
  • Department of Applied Economy I, University of Seville, Spain
  • University of Seville, Spain
Bibliografia
  • [1] Balke, N. S. Detecting level shifts in time series. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 11, 1 (1993), 81–92.
  • [2] Chen, C., and Liu, L.-M. Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association 88, 421 (1993), 284–297.
  • [3] Del Corral, V., Fernandez, L., and Alvarez, L. Tourism and its contribution to the local economy. Pastaza province case study. Revista interamericana de ambiente y turismo 18, 1 (2022), 101–106.
  • [4] Gómez, V., and Maravall, A. Estimation, prediction, and interpolation for nonstationary series with the Kalman filter. Journal of the American Statistical Association 89, 426 (1994), 611–624.
  • [5] Gómez, V., and Maravall, A. Program TRAMO. Time Series Regression with Arima Noise, Missing Observations, and Outliers. Instructions for the User. EUI Working Paper ECO No. 94/31, European University Institute, Florence, 1994.
  • [6] Gómez, V., and Maravall, A. Programs TRAMO and SEATS. Update: December 1995. EUI Working Paper ECO No. 95/46, European University Institute, Florence, 1995.
  • [7] Gomez, V., and Maravall, A. Programs TRAMO (Time Series Regression with Arima Noise, Missing Observations and Outliers) and SEATS (Signal Extraction in Arima Time Series). Instructions for the User (Beta Version, Junio 1997). The Working Papers of the Dirección General de Análisis y Programación Presupuestaria, Madrid, 1997.
  • [8] Gómez, V., and Maravall Herrero, A. Seasonal Adjustment and Signal Extraction in Economic Time Series. Working Paper No. 9809, Banco de España. Servicio de Estudios, 1998.
  • [9] Guevara, A. A. Impact of tourism on the local economy of the Island of Lanzarote (Canary Islands): a challenge for the tourism sector. Estudios turísticos, 119-120 (1993), 29–37, (in Spanish).
  • [10] Harvey, A. C. Forecasting, structural time series models and the Kalman filter. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 1990.
  • [11] Jin, X. C., Qu, M., and Bao, J. Impact of crisis events on Chinese outbound tourist flow: A framework for post-events growth. Tourism Management 74 (2019), 334–344.
  • [12] Koc, E., and Altinay, G. An analysis of seasonality in monthly per person tourist spending in Turkish inbound tourism from a market segmentation perspective. Tourism management 28, 1 (2007), 227–237.
  • [13] López Bonilla, J. M., and López Bonilla, L. M. Seasonal variability of the tourism market in Andalusia. Estudios y perspectivas en turismo 16, 2 (2007), 150–172, (in Spanish).
  • [14] Manzoor, F., Wei, L., Asif, M., Haq, M. Z. u., and Rehman, H. u. The contribution of sustainable tourism to economic growth and employment in Pakistan. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, 19 (2019), 3785.
  • [15] Maravall, A. On structural time series models and the characterization of components. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 3, 4 (1985), 350–355.
  • [16] Maravall, A. Unobserved components in economic time series. In Handbook of Applied Econometrics. Volume 1: Macroeconomics (Oxford, 1999), M. H. Pesaran and P. Schmidt, Eds., Blackwell Publishers Ltd., pp. 1–51.
  • [17] Maravall, A., and Gómez, V. Signal EWxtraction in ARIMA Time Series Program SEATS. EUI Working Paper ECO No. 92/65, European University Institute, Florence, 1992.
  • [18] Revuelta, J. M., and Lorenzo, F. TRAMO and SEATS: a comprehensive framework for univariate analysis and time series signal extraction Revista de economía aplicada 4, 11 (1996), 201–214, (in Spanish).
  • [19] Rey Moreno, M., Revilla Camacho, M. Á., Gil Jimeénez, J., and Loópez Bonilla, J. M. Fundamentals of Tourism Marketing. Síntesis, 2004, (in Spanish).
  • [20] Sánchez-Rivas García, J., Pérez Hidalgo, M. D., Pablo-Romero Gil-Delgado, M. d. P., and Camúñez Ruiz, J. A. European tourism demand in Andalusia measured through hotel accommodation in 2017: a gravity model. Investigaciones turísticas, 18, (2019), 119-137.
  • [21] Tiao, G. C., and Tsay, R. S. Consistency properties of least squares estimates of autoregressive parameters in ARMA models. The Annals of Statistics 11, 3 (1983), 856–871.
  • [22] Zou, H., and Yang, Y. Combining time series models for forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 20, 1 (2004), 69–84.
Uwagi
Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki (2025).
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-df0fda6b-a5d4-4073-bd81-b9ab5f65bd9c
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