Critical infrastructure operating area climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards

• Autorzy: Kołowrocki K. , Soszyńska-Budny J. , Torbicki M.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The climate-weather change process for a critical infrastructure operating area is considered and its states are introduced. A semi-Markov approach is used to construct a general probabilistic model of this process by defining its basic parameters. Further, the procedure of the climate-weather change process characteristics prediction is proposed.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

critical infrastructure; operation; prediction; climate-weather change

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 8, No. 2
• Strony: 15--24
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 15 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Kołowrocki K.

• Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

autor

Soszyńska-Budny J.

• Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

autor

Torbicki M.

• Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

Bibliografia

• 1. EU-CIRCLE Report D2.1-GMU2, Modelling outside dependences influence on Critical Infrastructure Safety (CIS) – Modelling Critical Infrastructure EU-CIRCLE Report D2.1-GMU3, Modelling outside dependences influence on Critical Infrastructure Safety (CIS) – Modelling Climate-Weather Change Process (C-WCP) including Extreme Weather Hazards (EWH), 2016
• 2. Operation Process (CIOP) including Operating Environment Threats (OET), 2016
• 3. EU-CIRCLE Report D2.3-GMU2, Identification methods and procedures of Climate-Weather Change Process (C-WCP) including Extreme Weather Hazards (EWH), 2016
• 4. EU-CIRCLE Report D2.3-GMU3, Identification methods and procedures of unknown parameters of Critical Infrastructure Operation Process General Model (CIOPGM) related to Operating Environment Threats (OET) and Extreme Weather Hazards (EWH), 2016
• 5. Ferreira F., Pacheco A., Comparison of level-crossing times for Markov and semi-Markov processes. Statistics and Probability Letters, Vol. 7, No 2, 151-157, 2007
• 6. Glynn P.W., Haas P.J., Laws of large numbers and functional central limit theorems for generalized semi Markov processes. Stochastic Models, Vol. 22, No 2, 201-231, 2006
• 7. Grabski F., (2002) Semi-Markov Models of Systems Reliability and Operations Analysis. System Research Institute, Polish Academy of Science, 2002 (in Polish)
• 8. Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska J., A general model of industrial systems operation processes related to their environment and infrastructure. Summer Safety & Reliability Seminars. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Issue 2, Vol. 2, 223-226, 2008
• 9. Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska J., Methods and algorithms for evaluating unknown parameters of operation processes of complex technical systems. Summer Safety & Reliability Seminars. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Issue 3, Vol. 1, 2, 211-222, 2009d
• 10. Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J., Reliability and Safety of Complex Technical Systems and Processes: Modeling - Identification - Prediction - Optimization, London, Dordrecht, Heildeberg, New York, Springer, 2011
• 11. Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J., Introduction to safety analysis of critical infrastructures. Proc. International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance and Safety Engineering - QR2MSE-2012, Chendgu, China, 1-6, 2012a
• 12. Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J., Preliminary approach to safety analysis of critical infrastructures. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars, Vol. 3, No 1, 73-88, 2012
• 13. Limnios N., Oprisan G., Semi-Markov Processes and Reliability. Birkhauser, Boston, 2005
• 14. Limnios N., Ouhbi B., Sadek A., Empirical estimator of stationary distribution for semi-Markov processes. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, Vol. 34, No. 4, 987-995 12, 2005
• 15. Macci C., Large deviations for empirical estimators of the stationary distribution of a semi-Markov process with finite state space. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, Vol. 37, No. 19,3077-3089, 2008

Uwagi

Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (zadania 2017).