Modeling the earthquake occurrence with time‑dependent processes: a brief review

• Autorzy: Mangira Ourania , Kourouklas Christos , Chorozoglou Dimitris , Iliopoulos Aggelos , Papadimitriou Eleftheria

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-019-00284-4

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The complexity of seismogenesis tantalizes the scientific community for understanding the earthquake process and its underlying mechanisms and consequently, precise earthquake forecasting, although a realistic target, is yet far from being a practice. Therefore, seismic hazard assessment studies are focused on estimating the probabilities of earthquake occurrence. For a more precise representation of seismicity-regarding time, space and magnitude stochastic modeling is engaged. The candidate models deal with either a single fault or fault segment, or a broader area, leading to fault-based or seismicitybased models, respectively. One important factor in stochastic model development is the time scale, depending upon the target earthquakes. In the case of strong earthquakes, the interevent times between successive events are relatively large, whereas, if we are interested in triggering and the probability of an event to occur in a small time increment then a family of short-term models is available. The basic time-dependent models that can be applied toward earthquake forecasting are briefly described in this review paper.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

time-dependent seismicity model; stochastic process; long-term forecast; short-term forecast; forecasting; earthquake

PL

model sejsmiczności zależnej od czasu; proces stochastyczny; prognoza długoterminowa; prognoza krótkoterminowa; prognozowanie; trzęsienie ziemi

• Wydawca: Instytut Geofizyki PAN ; Springer
• Czasopismo: Acta Geophysica
• Rocznik: 2019
• Tom: Vol. 67, no. 3
• Strony: 739--752
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 121 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Mangira Ourania

• Geophysics Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

autor

Kourouklas Christos

• Geophysics Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

autor

Chorozoglou Dimitris

• Geophysics Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

autor

Iliopoulos Aggelos

• Geophysics Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

autor

Papadimitriou Eleftheria

• Geophysics Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).