Modelling causality between agricultural and meteorological drought indices in the Corong River basin, East Java Indonesia

• Autorzy: Affandy Nur A. , Iranata Data , Anwar Nadjadji , Maulana Mahendra A. , Prastyo Dedy D. , Jaelani Lalu M. , Suryadi F. X.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24425/jwld.2023.146610

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The Lamongan Regency is an area in East Java, Indonesia, which often experiences drought, especially in the south. The Corong River basin is located in the southern part of Lamongan, which supplies the irrigation area of the Gondang Reservoir. Drought monitoring in the Corong River basin is very important to ensure the sustainability of the agricultural regions. This study aims to analyse the causal relationship between meteorological and agricultural drought indices represented by standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standard normalisation difference vegetation index (NDVI), using time series regression. The correlation between NDVI and SPEI lag 4 has the largest correlation test results between NDVI and SPEI lag, which is 0.41. This suggests that the previous four months of meteorological drought impacted the current agricultural drought. A time series regression model strengthens the results, which show a causal relationship between NDVI and SPEI lag. According to the NDVI-SPEI-1 lag 4 time series model, NDVI was influenced by NDVI in the previous 12 periods, and SPEI-1 in the last four periods had a determinant coefficient value of 0.4. This shows that the causal model between SPEI-1 and NDVI shows a fairly strong relationship for drought management in agricultural areas (irrigated areas) and is considered a reliable and effective tool in determining the severity and duration of drought in the study area.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

drought; river basin; standard normalisation difference vegetation index; NDVI; standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index; SPEI; time series regression

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo ITP
• Czasopismo: Journal of Water and Land Development
• Rocznik: 2023
• Tom: no. 58
• Strony: 178--188
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 47 poz., mapy, tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Affandy Nur A.

• Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, ITS Civil Engineering Department, ITS Sukolilo Campus, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia
• Universitas Islam Lamongan, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Indonesia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3208-2130

autor

Iranata Data

• Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, ITS Civil Engineering Department, ITS Sukolilo Campus, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2988-3316

autor

Anwar Nadjadji

• Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, ITS Civil Engineering Department, ITS Sukolilo Campus, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia

autor

Maulana Mahendra A.

• Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, ITS Civil Engineering Department, ITS Sukolilo Campus, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0933-1362

autor

Prastyo Dedy D.

• Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Faculty of Science and Data Analytics, Department of Statistics, Surabaya, Indonesia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1194-769X

autor

Jaelani Lalu M.

• Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Department of Geomatics Engineering, Surabaya, Indonesia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2663-9016

autor

Suryadi F. X.

• IHE Delft, Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2643-9241

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).