Subjective risk estimation of the rare event

• Autorzy: Nguyen Hoang

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/kones-2019-0013

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In the safety engineering, the most frequently disadvantage in risk estimation is the lack of data. In such cases, we have to rely on subjective estimations made by persons with practical knowledge in the field of interest, i.e. experts. However, in some realistic situations, they may have uncertainty in the perceiving and evaluation of the problem considered or limited knowledge of the rare events, such as the consequences of the seagoing ship propulsion failures. The probabilistic models of the risk estimation turn out to be insufficient in modelling the subjective uncertainty. The fuzzy methods are viewed to be powerful in dealing with ambiguity and uncertainty that can be used to handle with the subjective estimation. This article addresses the intuitionistic fuzzy method in the subjective estimation of the ship propulsion failure consequences as rare event risk. In the article, a subjective model of the ship propulsion risk is developed as scenarios of the different subsequent consequences of loss of ship propulsion function until a seriously severe accident resulting in loss of seaworthiness. The model proposes an approach combining AHP method and intuitionistic fuzzy method to assess the occurrence probability and severe probability of these rare events based on the expert opinions. In order to show the applicability of the proposed model, a study case of the propulsion risk of the container carrier operating on the North Atlantic lines is conducted.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

rare event; subjective risk estimation; intuitionistic fuzzy set; ship propulsion risk

• Wydawca: Łukasiewicz Research Network - Institute of Aviation ; European Science Society of Powertrain and Transport KONES Poland ; Wydawnictwo Instytutu Technicznego Wojsk Lotniczych
• Czasopismo: Journal of KONES
• Rocznik: 2019
• Tom: Vol. 26, No. 1
• Strony: 103--110
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 13 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Nguyen Hoang

• Gdynia Maritime University, Department of Engineering Sciences Morska Street 81-87, 81-225 Gdynia, Poland tel.: [phone]

Bibliografia

• [1] Admiralty Ocean Passages for the World, Fifth ed. Admiralty Charts and Publications; UK 2004.
• [2] Brandowski, A, Nguyen, H, Frackowiak, W, Podsiadlo, A., Risk estimation of the sea-going ship casualty as the consequence of propulsion loss, Proceedings of ESREL Conference 2009.
• [3] Cooke, R. M., Experts in Uncertainty, Oxford University Press, Oxford, New York 1991.
• [4] HELCOM (2014), Annual report on shipping accidents in the Baltic Sea in 2013.
• [5] Hurricane Centre Section of the Environment Canada’s Website (http://www.nhc.noaa/gov).
• [6] Kwiesielewicz, M., The analytic hierarchy decision process. Fuzzy and not fuzzy paired comparision, System Research Institute PAN. Warsaw 2002.
• [7] Modarres, M, Kaminskiy, M, Krivtsov, V., Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis, Marcel Dekker, New York 1999.
• [8] Nguyen, H., An application of intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method in ship system risk estimation, Journal of KONES Powertrain and Transport, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 365-372, 2016.
• [9] Podsiadło, A., Analysis of failure engine for main ship propulsion, Internal Study of Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia 2008. 109
• [10] Resolution A 849(20), Code for the investigation of marine casualties and incidents, IMO 1997.
• [11] Saaty, T. L., The analytic hierarchy process, McGraw Hill, New York 1980.
• [12] Tanava, M., A subjective assessment of alternative mission architectures for the human exploration of Mars at NASA using multicriteria decision making, Computers & Operations Research, Vol. 31, Elseviere, 2004.
• [13] Yucheng, D., Yinfeng, X., Hongyi, L., Min, D., A comparative study of the numerical scales and the prioritization methods in AHP, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 186. Elseviere, 2008. 110

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2019).