Proposing Probabilistic Operational Risk Assessment Model for Textile Industry Using Bayesian Approach

• Autorzy: Jan M. , Khalid M. S. , Awan A. A. , Nisar S.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5604/01.3001.0010.5860

Warianty tytułu

PL

Zaproponowanie modelu probabilistycznej oceny ryzyka operacyjnego dla przemysłu tekstylnego z wykorzystaniem podejścia bayesowskiego.

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Accidents, operational failures and losses prompt authorities to highlight the importance of adequate systems and controls to deal with operational risk (OR). Therefore risk assessment methodology has become a dire need of major industries for undertaking valuable measured in production and operation’s research. The paper describes methodology for conducting the risk assessment of the textile operational domain in general i.e. developing a conceptual risk assessment framework and conducting the methodological implementation of the selected operational risk element using the approach proposed. The risk assessment model proposed embraces the concept of probabilistic risk assessment structural modeling using the Bayesian Approach in its generalised form that may be applied to specific textile operational settings with the definition of dimensions and scales for a specific textile environment. The generalised model proposed can also be applied to different textile industries with the insertion of real data for testing and validation. The OR prediction model proposed is GUI-based, scalable, expandable and can be tested for any textile operations with little modification in parentend nodes under the specific risk element. The paper is helpful to ensure safety and a pro-active approach in textile risk management and also contributes towards the sustainable development of industry operations in the future.

PL

Wypadki, awarie i straty operacyjne skłaniają do podkreślenia znaczenia odpowiednich systemów i mechanizmów kontroli w celu radzenia sobie z ryzykiem operacyjnym (OR). W artykule opisano metodologię przeprowadzania oceny ryzyka w zakresie ogólnej działalności włókienniczej, tj. opracowanie ram koncepcyjnej oceny ryzyka i przeprowadzenie metodycznej realizacji wybranego elementu ryzyka operacyjnego z wykorzystaniem proponowanego podejścia. Proponowany model oceny ryzyka obejmuje koncepcję modelowania strukturalnego probabilistycznej oceny ryzyka z wykorzystaniem podejścia bayesowskiego w swojej uogólnionej formie, która może być stosowana do określonych ustawień operacyjnych wyrobów włókienniczych z definicją wymiarów i skal dla określonego środowiska włókienniczego. Proponowany ogólny model może również znaleźć zastosowanie w różnych branżach tekstylnych, wprowadzając rzeczywiste dane do testowania i walidacji. Proponowany model prognozowania OR, oparty na interfejsie GUI, jest skalowalny, rozszerzalny i może być zastosowany w przypadku dowolnych operacji z niewielkimi modyfikacjami w węzłach nadrzędnych/końcowych w ramach określonego elementu ryzyka. Dane zaprezentowane w artykule mogą być przydatne w zakresie zarządzania ryzykiem włókienniczym, a także wnoszą wkład do zrównoważonego rozwoju działalności przemysłowej w przyszłości.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

operational risk; probabilistic risk assessment model; probability; impacts; Bayesian approach

PL

ryzyko operacyjne; probabilistyczny model oceny ryzyka; prawdopodobieństwo; uderzenia; podejście bayesowskie

• Wydawca: Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Łódzki Instytut Technologiczny
• Czasopismo: Fibres & Textiles in Eastern Europe
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: Vol. 26, no. 1 (127)
• Strony: 10--20
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 36 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Jan M.

• National University of Science & Technology, Department of Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering, PNEC, Karachi, Pakistan

autor

Khalid M. S.

• National University of Science & Technology, Department of Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering, PNEC, Karachi, Pakistan

autor

Awan A. A.

• National University of Science & Technology, Department of Management & Information System, PNEC, Karachi, Pakistan

autor

Nisar S.

• National University of Science & Technology, Department of Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering, PNEC, Karachi, Pakistan

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Uwagi

PL

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2018).