Application of the commensurability method for long-term forecasting of the highest summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava

• Autorzy: Khrystiuk Borys , Gorbachova Liudmyla , Pekárová Pavla , Miklánek Pavol

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.26491/mhwm/114482

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper reports the use of the commensurability method for long-term forecasting of the highest summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava. Bratislava is the capital of the Slovak Republic, as well as its major administrative and industrial centre. In the past, Bratislava has suffered from dangerous floods. The highest floods have occurred most frequently in the summer. Consequently, long-term forecasting of summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava has important scientific and practical significance. We used the dates of the highest summer floods for the period 1876-2018, as well as historical information about the highest summer floods that occurred before the beginning of regular hydrometric observations. The commensurability method supports prediction of various natural phenomena, including floods and other dangerous events. It is characterized by the simplicity of the calculations and minimum needs for input information. Four methods of forecasting were used: (1) the calculated value of commensurability; (2) the two-dimensional and three-dimensional graphs of commensurability; (3) the time intervals between floods that have occurred in the past; and (4) the number of commensurability equations with three components. The results indicate that the highest summer floods are likely to occur on the Danube at Bratislava in 2020, 2025, and 2030.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

flood; long-term forecasting; Weng Wen-Bo method; commensurability

• Wydawca: Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
• Czasopismo: Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: Vol. 8, Iss. 1
• Strony: 70--76
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 23 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Khrystiuk Borys

• Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, 37 Prospekt Nauky, 03028 Kyiv, Ukraine

autor

Gorbachova Liudmyla

• Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, 37 Prospekt Nauky, 03028 Kyiv, Ukraine

autor

Pekárová Pavla

• Institute of Hydrology, Slovak Academy of Sciences

autor

Miklánek Pavol

• Institute of Hydrology, Slovak Academy of Sciences

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