Long term monthly streamfow forecasting in humid and semiarid regions

Fouchal, Amel; Souag, Gamane Doudja

doi:10.1007/s11600-019-00312-3

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

Long term monthly streamfow forecasting in humid and semiarid regions

Autorzy

Fouchal Amel , Souag Gamane Doudja

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

https://www.springer.com/journal/11600

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-019-00312-3

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

Long-term monthly streamfow forecasting has great importance in the water resource system planning. However, its modelling in extreme cases is difcult, especially in semiarid regions. The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy of artifcial neural networks (ANNs) and hybrid wavelet-artifcial neural networks (WA-ANNs) for multi-step monthly streamfow forecasting in two diferent hydro-climatic regions in Northern Algeria. Diferent issues have been addressed, both those related to the model’s structure and those related to wavelet transform. The discrete wavelet transform has been used for the preprocessing of the input variables of the hybrid models, and the multi-step streamfow forecast was carried out by means of a recursive approach. The study demonstrated that WA-ANN models outperform the single ANN models for the two hydro-climatic regions. According to the performance criteria used, the results highlighted the ability of WAANN models with lagged streamfows, precipitations and evapotranspirations to forecast up to 19 months for the humid region with good accuracy [Nash–Sutclife criterion (N_s) equal 0.63], whereas, for the semiarid region, the introduction of evapotranspirations does not improve the model’s accuracy for long lead time (N_s less than 0.6 for all combinations used). The maximum lead time achieved, for the semiarid region, was about 13 months, with only lagged streamfows as inputs.

Słowa kluczowe

neural networks multi-step forecasting monthly streamfow wavelet transform hydro-climatic regions

sieci neuronowe prognozowanie wieloetapowe przepływ miesięczny transformacja falkowa regiony hydroklimatyczne

Wydawca

Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Springer

Czasopismo

Acta Geophysica

Rocznik

2019

Tom

Vol. 67, no. 4

Strony

1223--1240

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 61 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Fouchal Amel

amfouchal@yahoo.com

LEGHYD Laboratory, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Science and Technology Houari Boumediene, BP 32, Bab-Ezzouar, Algiers, Algeria

autor

Souag Gamane Doudja

souagd@yahoo.fr

LEGHYD Laboratory, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Science and Technology Houari Boumediene, BP 32, Bab-Ezzouar, Algiers, Algeria

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).

Typ dokumentu

Bibliografia

Identyfikator YADDA

bwmeta1.element.baztech-cf68816f-569f-476c-9a6f-f8669c900d86