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The Russian-Ukrainian war versus the mineral security of Poland

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PL
Wojna rosyjsko-ukraińska a bezpieczeństwo surowcowe Polski
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EN
This work is an attempt to determine the scale of threats to the mineral security of Poland in the area of non-energy raw materials resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In particular, it aims to identify those industries whose proper functioning may be threatened in the face of the limited supply of raw materials from three directions – Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. An element of the analysis was also the indication of possible alternative sources of the supply of these raw materials. For this purpose, the directions of imports to Poland of about 140 non-energy raw materials in 2011–2020 were analyzed. As a result, about thirty raw materials were selected, the supplies of which came from, among others, at least one of the three mentioned countries. To determine the raw materials for which the disruption of supplies may have the most serious impact on the functioning of the Polish economy, the following criteria were adopted: a minimum 20% share of these countries in covering the domestic demand in 2020, and a minimum value of these imports in 2020 of 20 million PLN. These threshold conditions were met by eight raw materials: iron ores and concentrates, carbon black, potash, aluminum, ferroalloys, nickel, ball clays and refractory clays, and synthetic corundum. Among these, the need to change the directions of supplies applies to the greatest extent to iron ores and concentrates, aluminum and nickel, while in the case of non-metallic raw materials, it applies most to ball clays and refractory clays and potassium salts. These are among the most important raw materials necessary for the proper functioning of the national economy, but their shortage or disruptions in the continuity of their supplies pose a real threat to the mineral security of Poland.
PL
Niniejsza praca jest próbą określenia skali zagrożeń, wynikających z inwazji Rosji na Ukrainę w zakresie bezpieczeństwa surowcowego Polski w obszarze surowców nieenergetycznych. W szczególności ma ona na celu wskazanie tych branż przemysłu, których właściwe funkcjonowanie może być zagrożone wobec ograniczenia dostaw surowców z trzech kierunków, tj. Rosji, Białorusi i Ukrainy. Elementem analizy było również wskazanie możliwych alternatywnych źródeł zaopatrzenia w te surowce. W tym celu przeanalizowano kierunki importu do Polski około 140 surowców nieenergetycznych w latach 2011–2020. Wyłoniono około 30 surowców, których dostawy pochodziły m.in. z co najmniej jednego z trzech krajów objętych konfliktem. Do wyznaczenia surowców, dla których zakłócenie dostaw może mieć najpoważniejszy wpływ na funkcjonowanie polskiej gospodarki przyjęto następujące kryteria: minimum 20-procentowy udział wymienionych krajów w pokryciu krajowego zapotrzebowania w 2020 r. oraz minimalna wartość importu z tych krajów w 2020 r. – 20 mln zł. Warunki te spełniało 8 surowców: rudy i koncentraty żelaza, sadza, sole potasowe, aluminium, żelazostopy, nikiel, iły biało wypalające się i ogniotrwałe oraz korund syntetyczny. Wśród tych surowców konieczność zmiany kierunków dostaw dotyczy w największym stopniu rud i koncentratów żelaza oraz aluminium i niklu, a w przypadku surowców niemetalicznych – iłów biało wypalających się i ogniotrwałych oraz soli potasowych. Należą one do najważniejszych surowców niezbędnych do właściwego funkcjonowania krajowej gospodarki, natomiast niedobór bądź zakłócenia ciągłości ich dostaw oznaczają realne zagrożenie dla bezpieczeństwa surowcowego Polski.
Twórcy
  • Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
  • Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
autor
  • Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
  • Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
  • Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
  • Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
  • Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
  • Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
  • Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
  • Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
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Uwagi
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Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023)
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