Impact of climate fluctuations on the spring runoff regime with regard to rivers in Lithuania

• Autorzy: Bagdžiūnaitė-Litvinaitienė L. , Litvinaitis A.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1515/jwld-2015-0009

Warianty tytułu

PL

Wpływ zmian klimatycznych na reżim wiosennego odpływu na przykładzie rzek Litwy

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The article describes the impact of fluctuations in climatic factors on hydrological processes. The analysis of climate and hydrology covers two periods, the first up to 1996 and the second from 1981 to 2012. Study object includes 22 river basins situated on the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea: 1000 km², up to 10 000 km² and bigger. The study involved Mann–Kendall, Spearman's and linear regression tests. Causal relationships, as criteria that may fundamentally change the runoff regime set up by climatic factors, were established by evaluating the size of the river basin and assessing the spread of sediments, lakes, swamps and forests in the river basin. The analysis of data from the last thirty years disclosed that, with reference to the previously obtained information, floods in lakes became substantially reduced. Nevertheless, within the winter period of recent years, temperatures prevented lakes from acting as water reservoirs. The paper examined and defined the impact of sediments on variations in the runoff regime. For the period of the last thirty years, cut-off dates, i.e. flood start, crest and end, have advanced.

PL

Przedmiotem artykułu jest wpływ czynników klimatycznych na zmianę procesów hydrologicznych. Dokonano analizy klimatycznej i hydrologicznej dwóch okresów: do roku 1996 i od roku 1981 do 2012. Obiektem badań były zlewnie 22 rzek we wschodniej części wybrzeża Morza Bałtyckiego: do 1000 km², do 10 000 km² i większe. W badaniach stosowano testy statystyczne Manna–Kendalla, Spearmana i regresji liniowej przeznaczone do ustalenia związku przyczynowego w ocenie wielkości zlewni rzeki, osadów, jezior, bagien, zalesienia w zlewni rzeki jako kryteria, które w zasadniczy sposób mogą zmienić reżim odpływu ukształtowany przez czynniki klimatyczne. Analiza danych pochodzących z ostatnich trzydziestu lat wykazała, że według wcześniejszych danych jeziora w większym stopniu ograniczały występowanie powodzi, jednak w ostatnich latach temperatura w sezonie zimowym nie pozwala jeziorom pełnić funkcji akumulatorów wodnych. Zanalizowano i określono wpływ osadów na zmiany reżimu przepływu. Stwierdzono, że w ciągu ostatnich trzydziestu lat graniczne daty powodzi – początek, szczyt i koniec – notowane są wcześniej.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

climate change; Mann-Kendall test; river; runoff regime; trend

PL

reżim przepływu; rzeka; test Manna-Kendalla; trend; zmiany klimatyczne

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo ITP
• Czasopismo: Journal of Water and Land Development
• Rocznik: 2015
• Tom: no. 25
• Strony: 23--30
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 30 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Bagdžiūnaitė-Litvinaitienė L.

• Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Department of Water Engineering, Saulėtekio al. 11, 10223 Vilnius, Lithuania

autor

Litvinaitis A.

• Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Department of Water Engineering, Saulėtekio al. 11, 10223 Vilnius, Lithuania

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