Modelling the accident probability in large-scale, maritime transportation system

• Autorzy: Blokus-Roszkowska A. , Montewka J. , Smolarek J.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The probability of an accident in transportation systems can serve as a measure of these systems safety or risk, depending on the objective. Therefore numerous methods and models for risk evaluation, with respect to maritime, have been developed. However, these models are either too simplified, allowing relatively fast analysis but very often missing the substantial links among the model variables, or they are too slow for effective analysis, due to computational complexity, not necessarily being backed-up with the complexity of the model itself. Thereby, this paper introduces a novel method evaluating the probability of ship-ship collision in the maritime transportation system focusing on the open sea collisions, applying the queuing theory in the simulation model. The model allows relatively fast prediction as it focuses on the specific events (e.g. accidents), instead of simulating the whole traffic. To support this hypothesis a case study is presented focusing on a selected element of transportation system in operation.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

maritime transportation system; safety; collision probability; traffic simulation; semi-Markov model

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
• Rocznik: 2012
• Tom: Vol. 3, No. 2
• Strony: 237--244
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 14 poz., rys., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Blokus-Roszkowska A.

• Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

autor

Montewka J.

• Aalto University, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, Espoo, Finland

autor

Smolarek J.

• Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

Bibliografia

• [1] Aven, T. (2012). The risk concept – historical and recent development trends. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 99, 33-44.
• [2] Chauvin, Ch. & Lardjane, S. (2008). Decision making and strategies in an interaction situation: Collision avoidance at sea. Transport Research Part F (11), 259-269.
• [3] Garrido, J.M. (2001). Object-Oriented DiscreteEvent Simulation with Java. Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publisher, New York.
• [4] Goerlandt F. & Kujala, P. (2011). Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 96, 91-107.
• [5] Helsgaun, K. (2000). Discrete Event Simulation in Java. Datalogiske skrifter, 89, Roskilde University. Available online http://www.akira.ruc.dk/~keld/research/JAVA SIMULATION/JAVASIMULATION-1.1/docs/ Report.pdf
• [6] Inoue, K., Seta, H., Kawase, M., Masaru, Y., Daichi, H., Hideo, U., Kohei, H. & Kenji, M. (2004). Assessment model of ship handling safety by noting unsafe situation as an index. J. Kansai Soc. Nav. Archit., 205-210.
• [7] Kilgore, R., Healy, K. & Kleindorfer, G. (1998) The future of Java-based simulation. Proceedings of the 1998 Winter Simulation Conference, Washington, DC pp. 1707-1712. Los Alamitos, CA: IEEE Computer Society Press.
• [8] Li, S., Meng, Q. & Qu, X. (2012) An overview of maritime waterway quantitative risk assessment models. Risk Analysis, 32, pp. 496-512.
• [9] McNab, R. (1996). SimJava: a discrete event simulation library for Java. University of Newcastle upon Tyne. Available from http://www.javaSim.ncl.ac.uk
• [10] Montewka, J., Goerlandt, F. & Kujala, P. (2012). Determination of collision criteria and causation factors appropriate to a model for estimating the probability of maritime accidents. Ocean Engineering 40, 50-61.
• [11] Montewka, J., Hinz T., Kujala, P. & Matusiak, J. (2010). Probability modelling of vessel collisions. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 95, 573-589.
• [12] Simard, R. (2012). SSJ: Stochastic Simulation in Java, Document available online at: http://www.iro.umontreal.ca/~simardr/ssj/indexe. html.
• [13] Smalko, Z. & Smolarek, L. (2010). Modelling a ship safety according to collision threat for ship routes crossing. Scientific Journals Maritime University of Szczecin, 20(92), 120-127.
• [14] Tyszner, J. (1990). Digital simulation (in Polish). WNT, Warsaw.