Hindcasting of Extreme Wave Events in the Fairway of Port of Santos (Brazil) over the Last Eighty Years

• Autorzy: Alfredini Paolo , Arasaki Emilia , Puia Helder Luiz

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.12716/1001.19.01.32

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Port of Santos is responsible for 29.0% Brazil’s trade flow. A concern arisen due to climate changes has been the increase in the frequency and severity of extreme wave events on the fairway. The limit established by the Maritime Authority's Pilotage Regulations for the total suspension of traffic on the fairway regarding waves is when significant heights greater than 3.0 m occur. A summary of the hindcasting of extreme wave events in Santos Bay since 1940 has been presented. The findings of the statistical assessment since that time identified an increase of more than 6 times in environmental downtime due to extreme wave events and the analysis of extreme wave height values for return periods of 50, 75 and 100 years revealed increases of 3.8% to 9.9%, depending on the statistical distribution used and the return period considered.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

navigation safety; maritime risk assessment; port and harbour operations; coastal and ocean engineering; marine hydrometeorology; climate change impact; oceanographic data; statistical analysis and modelling

• Wydawca: Faculty of Navigation, Gdynia Maritime University
• Czasopismo: TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
• Rocznik: 2025
• Tom: Vol. 19 No. 1
• Strony: 269--274
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 9 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Alfredini Paolo

• University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4246-5861

autor

Arasaki Emilia

• University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

autor

Puia Helder Luiz

• Zenith Litoral Hidrografia Ltda and Santos Pilots, Santos, Brazil

Bibliografia

• [1] ANTAQ, Feb. 2025, “Estatístico Aquaviário”, Agência Nacional de Transportes Aquaviários. [Online]. Available: https://web3.antaq.gov.br/ea/sense/index.html#pt.
• [2] CEPAL, Mar. 2025, “Informe portuário 2023-2024”, UN Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe [Online]. Available: https://www.portodesantos.com.br/2025/03/27/orgao-da-onu-confirma-santos-como-maior-porto-da-america latina/#:~:text=De%20acordo%20com%20a%20Cepal,investidores%20de%20todo%20o%20planeta%E2%80%9D.
• [3] PNBOIA, “Programa Nacional de Boias”, Centro de Hidrografia da Marinha [Online]. Available: https://www.marinha.mil.br/chm/dados-do-goos-brasil/pnboia.
• [4] ECMWF, “ERA5”, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [Online]. Available: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=overview
• [5] Zenith Litoral Hidrografia Ltda and Santos Pilots, Boletins mensais de alturas de ondas, 2015 to 2023.
• [6] NUCLEBRÁS – Empresa Nucleares Brasileiras SA/CDTN – Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear, Relatórios de progresso da campanha de medições oceanográficas na região das praias do Una e do Rio Verde no litoral sul do Estado de São Paulo. Volumes de I a XI, 1982 to 1986.
• [7] INPH - Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Hidroviárias, Relatório da campanha de medições na Baía de Santos, 1974.
• [8] J.W. Kamphuis, Introduction to Coastal Engineering and Management. 2nd ed. Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., 2012.
• [9] P. Alfredini, E. Arasaki, and H. L. Puia, “Statistical trend of exposure of Santos Port (Brazil) to extreme events of sea level rise and storminess”, Journal of Coastal Research, vol. 113, pp. 205-209, 2024.

Uwagi

1. Pełne imiona podano na stronie internetowej czasopisma w "Authors in other databases."

2. Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki (2025).