Spatio-temporal variation of rainfall over Bihar State, India

• Autorzy: Warwade P. , Tiwari S. , Ranjan S. , Chandniha S. K. , Adamowski J.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/jwld-2018-0018

Warianty tytułu

PL

Przestrzenna i czasowa zmienność opadów w stanie Bihar w Indiach

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This study detected, for the first time, the long term annual and seasonal rainfall trends over Bihar state, India, between 1901 and 2002. The shift change point was identified with the cumulative deviation test (cumulative sum – CUSUM), and linear regression. After the shift change point was detected, the time series was subdivided into two groups: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 10.3 was used to evaluate the spatial distribution of the trends. It was found that annual and monsoon rainfall trends decreased significantly; no significant trends were observed in pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter rainfall. The average decline in rainfall rate was –2.17 mm·year^–1 and –2.13 mm·year^–1 for the annual and monsoon periods. The probable change point was 1956. The number of negative extreme events were higher in the later period (1957–2002) than the earlier period (1901–1956).

PL

W badaniach prezentowanych w niniejszej pracy wykryto po raz pierwszy długookresowe trendy rocznych i sezonowych wartości opadów w indyjskim stanie Bihar w latach 1901–2002. Stosując kumulatywny test odchyleń (CUSUM – ang. cumulative deviation test) i regresję liniową zidentyfikowano punkt zwrotny. Następnie serie czasowe zostały podzielone na dwie grupy: przed i po punkcie zwrotnym. Do oceny przestrzennego rozkładu trendów zastosowano program Arc-Map 10.3. Stwierdzono, że trendy rocznych i monsunowych opadów znacząco malały. Nie zaobserwowano istotnych trendów w odniesieniu do opadów przed monsunem, po monsunie i w okresie zimowym. Średnie zmniejszenie ilości opadów wynosiło 2,17 mm·rok^–1 i 2,13 mm ·rok^–1 odpowiednio dla opadów rocznych i monsunowych. Prawdopodobnym punktem zwrotnym był rok 1956. Liczba skrajnych negatywnych zjawisk była większa w okresie 1957–2002 niż w okresie 1901–1956.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

climate change; hydrology; rainfall; spatio-temporal variation

PL

hydrologia; opady; zmiana klimatu; zmienność w czasie i przestrzeni

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo ITP
• Czasopismo: Journal of Water and Land Development
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: no. 36
• Strony: 183--197
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 57 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Warwade P.

• Central University of Jharkhand, Centre for Water Engineering and Management, Ranchi, India

autor

Tiwari S.

• Central University of Jharkhand, Centre for Water Engineering and Management, Ranchi, India

autor

Ranjan S.

• Central University of Jharkhand, Centre for Water Engineering and Management, Ranchi, India

autor

Chandniha S. K.

• National Institute of Hydrology, Surface Water Hydrology Division, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India

autor

Adamowski J.

• McGill University, Department of Bioresource Engineering, 21 111 Lakeshore Road, Ste Anne de Bellevue, QC H9X 3V9, Canada

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2018).