Safety analysis of critical infrastructure impacted by operation and climate-weather changes - theoretical backgrounds

• Autorzy: Kołowrocki Krzysztof

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.26408/srsp-2021-09

• Konferencja: 15th Summer Safety & Reliability Seminars - SSARS 2021, 5-12 September 2021, Ciechocinek, Poland
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The methodology and general approach to critical infrastructure safety and resilience analysis is proposed. The principles of multistate approach to critical infrastructure safety analysis are introduced. There are introduced the notions of critical infrastructure basic safety indicators like, the critical infrastructure safety function, the critical infrastructure risk function and the critical infrastructure fragility curve. The critical infrastructure safety and resilience indicators are proposed to be obtained using probabilistic approach to modelling of operation threats and extreme weather hazard impacts on its assets safety. There are proposed safety and resilience indicators, crucial for operators and users of the critical infrastructure, defined as a complex system in its operating environment. The safety of a critical infrastructure free of any outside impacts is discussed and modelled. The safety indicators of this critical infrastructure are defined. The safety of critical infrastructure impacted by its operation process is considered. The critical infrastructure operation process and its parameters are defined and its characteristics are determined. The safety and resilience indicators of the critical infrastructure related to the operation process impact are proposed. The safety of critical infrastructure impacted by the climate-weather change process at its operating area is considered. The climate-weather change process at the critical infrastructure operating area and its parameters are defined and its characteristics are determined. The safety and resilience indicators of the critical infrastructure related to the climate-weather change process at its operating area impact are proposed. The safety of critical infrastructure impacted by its operation process and climate-weather change process at its operating area is considered. The critical infrastructure operation process related to climate-weather change process at its operating area and its parameters are defined and its characteristics are determined. The safety and resilience indicators of the critical infrastructure impacted by the operation process related to climate-weather change process are proposed. Real critical infrastructures and their assets impacted by their operation processes related to climate-weather change process at their operating area are suggested to be examined and their safety and resilience indicators are proposed to be determined by the proposed methods.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

critical infrastructure; ageing; safety; operation impact; climate-weather impact; resilience

• Wydawca: Gdynia Maritime University ; Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
• Rocznik: 2021
• Tom: Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2021
• Strony: 139--180
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 54 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Kołowrocki Krzysztof

• Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4836-4976

Bibliografia

• Bogalecka, M. 2020. Consequences of Maritime Critical Infrastructure Accidents. Environmental Impacts. Modeling - Identification - Prediction - Optimization - Mitigation. Elsevier, Amsterdam - Oxford - Cambridge.
• Brunelle, R.D. & Kapur, K.C. 1999. Review and classification of reliability measures for multistate and continuum models. IIE Transactions 31, 1117-1180.
• Dąbrowska, E. 2019. Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Reliability Analysis of Complex Systems. PhD Thesis, Polish Academy of Science, System Research Institute, Warsaw.
• Dąbrowska, E. 2020. Safety analysis of car wheel system impacted by operation process.K. Kołowrocki et al. (Eds.). Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2020. Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, 61-75.
• De Porcellinis, S., Oliva, G., Panzieri, S. & Setola, R. 2009. A holistic-reductionistic approach for modeling interdependencies. Critical Infrastructure Protection III. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 215-227.
• Ferreira, F. & Pacheco, A. 2007. Comparison of level-crossing times for Markov and semi-Markov processes. Statistics & Probability Letters 77(2), 151-157.
• Glynn, P.W. & Haas, P.J. 2006. Laws of large numbers and functional central limit theorems for generalized semi-Markov processes. Stochastic Models 22(2), 201-231.
• Gdynia Maritime University Critical Infrastructure Safety Interactive Platform, http://gmu.safety.umg.edu.pl/ (accessed 13 February 2020).
• Gouldby, B.P., Schultz, M.T., Simm, J.D. & Wibowo, J.L. 2010. Beyond the Factor of Safety: Developing Fragility Curves to Characterize System Reliability, Report in Water Resources Infrastructure Program ERDC SR-10-1, Prepared for Headquarters. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington.
• Grabski, F. 2015. Semi-Markov Processes: Applications in System Reliability and Maintenance. Elsevier, Amsterdam - Boston - Heidelberg - London - New York - Oxford - Paris - San Diego - San Francisco - Sydney - Tokyo.
• Holden, R., Val, D.V., Burkhard, R. & Nodwell, S. 2013. A network flow model for interdependent infrastructures at the local scale. Safety Science 53(3), 51-60.
• Klabjan, D. & Adelman, D. 2016. Existence of optimal policies for semi-Markov decision processes using duality for infinite linear programming. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Control and Optimization 44(6), 2104-212.
• Kołowrocki, K. 2000. On asymptotic approach to multi-state systems reliability evaluation. Recent Advances in Reliability Theory: Methodology, Practice and Inference. Birkhauser, Boston, 163-180.
• Kołowrocki, K. 2003. Asymptotic approach to reliability analysis of large systems with degrading components. International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering 10(3), 249-288.
• Kołowrocki, K. 2005. Reliability of Large Systems. Elsevier, Amsterdam - Boston - Heidelberg - London - New York - Oxford - Paris - San Diego - San Francisco - Singapore - Sydney - Tokyo.
• Kołowrocki, K. 2008. Reliability and risk analysis of multi-state systems with degrading components. International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering 6(2), 213-228.
• Kołowrocki, K. 2014. Reliability of Large and Complex Systems. 2nd ed. Elsevier, Amsterdam - Boston - Heidelberg - London - New York - Oxford - Paris - San Diego - San Francisco - Singapore - Sydney - Tokyo.
• Kołowrocki, K. 2019/2020. Safety Analysis of Critical Infrastructure Impacted by Operation Process and Climate-Weather Change Process- theoretical backgrounds. Report in the Scope of GMU Research Projects.
• Kołowrocki, K. 2020a. Examination of the safety of a port oil terminal, Scientific Journals of the Maritime University of Szczecin 61(133), 143-151.
• Kołowrocki, K. 2020b. Safety analysis of multistate ageing car wheel system with dependent components. K. Kołowrocki et al. (Eds.). Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2020. Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, 101-116.
• Kołowrocki, K. 2021. Safety analysis of multistate ageing system with inside dependences and outside impacts. Current Research in Mathematical and Computer Sciences III. A. Lecko (Ed.). University of Warmia and Mazury Press (to appear).
• Kołowrocki, K. Dąbrowska, E. & Torbicki, M. 2019. Tools for processing climate hazards information. Report in the Scope of EU-CIRCLE Research Project. WP2, Task 2.3, D2.3.
• Kołowrocki, K. & Kuligowska, E. 2018. Operation and climate-weather change impact on maritime ferry safety. European Safety and Reliability Conference - ESREL, Proceding Paper, Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World, Haugen et al. (Eds), Taylor & Francis Group, London, 849-854.
• Kołowrocki, K. & Magryta, B. 2020a. Port oil terminal reliability optimization. Scientific Journals of Maritime University of Szczecin 62(134), 161-167.
• Kołowrocki, K. & Magryta, B. 2020b. Changing system operation states influence on its total operation cost. DepCoS-RELCOMEX 2020: Theory and Applications of Dependable Computer Systems, Springer, 355-365.
• Kołowrocki, K. & Magryta-Mut, B. 2020. Safety of maritime ferry technical system impacted by operation process.K. Kołowrocki et al. (Eds.). Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2020. Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, 117-134.
• Kołowrocki, K. & Magryta-Mut, B. 2021. Operation cost and safety optimization of maritime transportation system.Current Research in Mathematical and Computer Sciences III. A. Lecko (Ed.). University of Warmia and Mazury Press (to appear).
• Kołowrocki, K., et. al. 2018. Inventory of Critical Infrastructure Impact Assessment Models for Climate Hazards. Reports in the Scope of EU-CIRCLE Research Project, WP3. Tasks 3.3-3.4, D3.3.
• Kossow, A. & Preuss, W. 1995. Reliability of linear consecutively-connected systems with multistate components. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 44, 518-522.
• Lauge, A., Hernantes, J. & Sarriegi, J.M. 2015. Critical infrastructure dependencies: a holistic, dynamic and quantitative approach. International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection 8, 16-23.
• Li, W. & Pham, H. 2005. Reliability modeling of multi-state degraded systems with multi-competing failures and random shocks. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 54(2), 297-303.
• Limnios, N. & Oprisan, G. 2005. Semi-Markov Processes and Reliability. Birkhauser. Boston.
• Lisnianski, A., Frenkel, I. & Ding, Y. 2010. Multi-state Systems Reliability Analysis and Optimization for Engineers and Industrial Managers. Springer, London.
• Magryta, B. 2020. Reliability approach to resilience of critical infrastructure impacted by operation process. Journal of KONBiN 50(1), 131-153.
• Magryta-Mut, B. 2020. Safety optimization of maritime ferry technical system.K. Kołowrocki et al. (Eds.). Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2020. Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, 175-182.
• Magryta-Mut, B. 2021. Safety and Operation Cost Optimization of Port and Maritime Transportation System. PhD Thesis (under completion).
• Mercier, S. 2008. Numerical bounds for semi-Markovian quantities and application to reliability. Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability 10(2), 179-198.
• Natvig, B. 2007. Multi-state reliability theory, Chapter in Encyclopedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability. Wiley, New York, 1160-1164.
• Nieuwenhuijs, A., Luiijf, E. & Klaver, M. 2008. Modeling dependencies in critical infrastructures. Critical Infrastructure Protection II, IFIP International Federation for Information Processing, Series 253. Springer, Boston, 205-213.
• Ouyang, M. 2014. Review on modelling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 121, 43-60.
• Ramirez-Marqueza, J.E. & Coit, D.W. 2007. Multi-state component criticality analysis for reliability improvement in multi-state systems. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 92, 1608-1619.
• Rinaldi, S., Peerenboom, J. & Kelly, T. 2001. Identifying, understanding and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies, IEEE Control Systems Magazine 21(6), 11-25.
• Svedsen, N. & Wolthunsen, S. 2007. Connectivity models of interdependency in mixed-type critical infrastructure networks. Information Security Technical Report 12(1), 44-55.
• Szymkowiak, M. 2019. Lifetime Analysis by Aging Intensity Functions. Monograph in series: Studies in Systems, Decision and Control. Springer International Publishing.
• Tang, H., Yin, B.Q. & Xi, H.S. 2007. Error bounds of optimization algorithms for semi-Markov decision processes. International Journal of Systems Science 38(9).
• Torbicki, M. 2019a. An approach to longtime safety and resilience prediction of critical infrastructure influenced by weather change processes. IEEE The International Conference on Information and Digital Technologies 2019 - IDT 2019. Žilina, 492-496.
• Torbicki, M. 2019b. Safety of a Critical Network Infrastructure Exposed to Operation and Weather Condition Changes. PhD Thesis, Polish Academy of Science, System Research Institute, Warsaw.
• Torbicki, M. 2019c. The longtime safety and resilience prediction of the Baltic oil terminal. IEEE The International Conference on Information and Digital Technologies 2019 – IDT 2019. Žilina, 497-503.
• Torbicki, M. & Drabiński, B. 2020. An application determining weatherimpact on critical infrastructure safety and resilience.K. Kołowrocki et al. (Eds.). Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2020. Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, 231-242.
• Wang, Z., Huang, H.Z., Li, Y. & Xiao, N.C. 2011. An approach to reliability assessment under degradation and shock process. Reliability, IEEE Transactions on Reliability 60(4), 852-863.
• Xue, J. 1985. On multi-state system analysis. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 34, 329-337.
• Xue, J. & Yang, K. 1995a. Dynamic reliability analysis of coherent multi-state systems. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 4(44), 683-688.
• Xue, J. & Yang, K. 1995b. Symmetric relations in multi-state systems. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 4(44), 689-693.
• Yingkui, G. & Jing, L. 2012. Multi-state system reliability: a new and systematic review. Procedia Engineering 29, 531-536.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).