Application of grey model GM(1, 1) to ultra short-term predictions of universal time

• Autorzy: Lei Y. , Guo M. , Zhao D. , Cai H. , Hu D.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1515/arsa-2016-0002

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

A mathematical model known as one-order one-variable grey differential equation model GM(1, 1) has been herein employed successfully for the ultra short-term (<10days) predictions of universal time (UT1-UTC). The results of predictions are analyzed and compared with those obtained by other methods. It is shown that the accuracy of the predictions is comparable with that obtained by other prediction methods. The proposed method is able to yield an exact prediction even though only a few observations are provided. Hence it is very valuable in the case of a small size dataset since traditional methods, e.g., least-squares (LS) extrapolation, require longer data span to make a good forecast. In addition, these results can be obtained without making any assumption about an original dataset, and thus is of high reliability. Another advantage is that the developed method is easy to use. All these reveal a great potential of the GM(1, 1) model for UT1-UTC predictions.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

universal time; UT1-UTC; prediction; grey model

• Wydawca: Centrum Badań Kosmicznych PAN ; De Gruyter
• Czasopismo: Artificial Satellites : Journal of Planetary Geodesy
• Rocznik: 2016
• Tom: Vol. 51, No. 1
• Strony: 19--29
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 18 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Lei Y.

• National Time Service Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
• Key Laboratory of Time and Frequency Primary Standards, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

autor

Guo M.

• Xi’an Institute of Optics and Precision Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

autor

Zhao D.

• National Time Service Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

autor

Cai H.

• National Time Service Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
• Key Laboratory of Time and Frequency Primary Standards, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

autor

Hu D.

• Xi’an Institute of Optics and Precision Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

Bibliografia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).