Extreme precipitation indices trend assessment over Thrace region, Turkey

Oruc, Sertac; Yalcin, Emrah

doi:10.1007/s11600-020-00531-z

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Tytuł artykułu

Extreme precipitation indices trend assessment over Thrace region, Turkey

Autorzy

Oruc Sertac , Yalcin Emrah

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

https://www.springer.com/journal/11600

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-020-00531-z

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

The frequency and the severity of extreme weather events are increasing globally and will continue to do so in the coming decades as a consequence of our changing climate. Understanding the characteristics of these events is crucial due to their signifcant negative impacts on social, physical and economic environments. In this study, 14 extreme rainfall indices are determined and examined in terms of trends and statistical characteristics for the four meteorological stations located in the Thrace region of Turkey, namely Edirne, Tekirdag, Kirklareli and Sariyer (Istanbul). The results indicate that annual total precipitation has an increasing trend for the Kirklareli and Sariyer stations (z=1.730 and z=2.127) and a decreasing trend for the Edirne and Tekirdag stations (z=− 0.368 and z=− 0.401). However, the precipitation intensity indices (SDII) of all stations show increasing trends that are statistically signifcant for the Edirne and Kirklareli stations. The Kirklareli station tends to have more days with heavy, very heavy and extremely heavy rainfall events (z=2.241, z=2.076 and z=1.684, respectively). It is also anticipated that maximum amount of rainfalls in daily and consecutive fve- and ten-day time scales will probably increase at all stations. Moreover, rainfall from very wet days and extremely wet days and fraction of total wet day rainfall that comes from very wet days and extremely wet days indices also show increasing trend tendencies for all stations. The remarkable point is the decreasing total precipitation trend at the Edirne and Tekirdag stations, contrary to the Kirklareli and Sariyer stations, which indicates that the annual total precipitation does not necessarily depend on extreme precipitation for the analyzed period.

Słowa kluczowe

climate change extremal index extreme rainfall ClimPACT2 trend analysis ET-SCI

zmiana klimatu indeks ekstremalny opad ekstremalny ClimPACT2 analiza trendów

Wydawca

Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Springer

Czasopismo

Acta Geophysica

Rocznik

2021

Tom

Vol. 69, no. 1

Strony

307--321

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 49 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Oruc Sertac

sertac.oruc@ahievran.edu.tr

Department of Civil Engineering, Kirsehir Ahi Evran University, Kirsehir 40100, Turkey

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2906-0771

autor

Yalcin Emrah

emrah.yalcin@ahievran.edu.tr

Department of Civil Engineering, Kirsehir Ahi Evran University, Kirsehir 40100, Turkey

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3742-8866

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Bibliografia

Identyfikator YADDA

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