System Dynamic Model of Risk Element Transmission in Project Chain

• Autorzy: Li C. , Lu G. , Ma P. , Wu S.

Warianty tytułu

PL

Modelowanie dynamiczne możliwości transmisji ryzyka w łańcuchu projektów

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

It is important to realize that the risk of one project will affect other projects as well. Based on risk element transmission theory, firstly, this paper established a risk element transmission model between two projects by using system dynamics methodology. And then this paper stimulated the variations of the risk element transmission impact when the owner and the contractor hold different risk-sharing ratios. The simulation results indicate that the transmission impact of risk element will enjoy an accelerated growth with the increase of the contractor’s risk-sharing ratio.

PL

W artykule analizuje się możliwość przenoszenia ryzyka między różnymi projektami. Wprowadzono pojęcie współczynnika przenoszenia ryzyka.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

risk management; risk element transmission; project chain; system dynamics

PL

łańcuch projektów; ryzyko; przenoszenie ryzyka

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo SIGMA-NOT
• Czasopismo: Przegląd Elektrotechniczny
• Rocznik: 2012
• Tom: R. 88, nr 7b
• Strony: 308--310
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 7 poz., schem., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Li C.

• School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Box 611, No.2, Beinong Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, China

autor

Lu G.

• School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Box 611, No.2, Beinong Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, China

autor

Ma P.

• School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Box 611, No.2, Beinong Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, China

autor

Wu S.

• School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Box 611, No.2, Beinong Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, China

Bibliografia

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• [2] Alejandro Balbás, Raquel Balbás, Silvia Mayoral, Portfolio choice and optimal hedging with general risk functions: A simplex-like algorithm, European Journal of Operational Research, 192 (2009), No. 2, 603–620
• [3] M. De Beule, E. Maes, O. De Winter, W. Vanlaere and R. Van Impe, Artificial neural networks and risk stratification: A promising combination, Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 46 (2007), No. 1-2, 88-94
• [4] Cahit Perkgoz, Amir Azaron, Hideki Katagiri, Kosuke Kato and Masatoshi Sakawa, A multi-objective lead time control problem in multi-stage assembly systems using genetic algorithms, European Journal of Operational Research, 180 (2007), No. 1, 292-308
• [5] Siu Kui Au, Zhi-Hua Wang, Siu-Ming Lo, Compartment fire risk analysis by advanced Monte Carlo simulation, Engineering Structures, 29 (2007), No. 9, 2381-2390
• [6] Li cunbin, Fan lihe, Guo yong, Li zhong, The Analytic Model and it s application of Generalized Project Risk Analysis, Proceedings of 2004 International Conference on Construction & Real Estate Management, (2004) 229-231
• [7] Cunbin Li, Liang Zhang, Research on Multi-risk Element Transmission Model of Enterprise Project Chain, IEEE Symp. Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, (2009), No. 2, 345-348