Uncertainty in Analytical Collision Dynamics Model Due to Assumptions in Dynamic Parameters

• Autorzy: Stahlberg K. , Goerlandt F. , Montewka J. , Kujala P.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The collision dynamics model is a vital part in maritime risk analysis. Different models have been introduced since Minorsky first presented collision dynamics model. Lately, increased computing capac-ity has led to development of more sophisticated models. Although the dynamics of ship collisions have been studied and understanding on the affecting factors is increased, there are many assumptions required to com-plete the analysis. The uncertainty in the dynamic parameters due to assumptions is not often considered. In this paper a case study is conducted to show how input models for dynamic parameters affect the results of collision energy calculations and thus probability of an oil spill. The released deformation energy in collision is estimated by the means of the analytical collision dynamics model Zhang presented in his PhD thesis. The case study concerns the sea area between Helsinki and Tallinn where a crossing of two densely trafficked wa-terways is located. Actual traffic data is utilized to obtain realistic encounter scenarios by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Applicability of the compared assumptions is discussed based on the findings of the case study.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

collision avoidance; risk analysis; dynamic parameters; analytical model

• Wydawca: Faculty of Navigation, Gdynia Maritime University
• Czasopismo: TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
• Rocznik: 2012
• Tom: Vol. 6, no. 1
• Strony: 47--54
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 30 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Stahlberg K.

• Aalto University, School of Engineering, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, Espoo, Finland

autor

Goerlandt F.

• Aalto University, School of Engineering, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, Espoo, Finland

autor

Montewka J.

• Maritime University of Szczecin, Institute of Marine Traffic Engineering, Poland

autor

Kujala P.

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