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Anthropogenic and Climatic Causality of Changes in the Hydrological Regime of the Dnieper River

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EN
Abstrakty
EN
The intensive use of water resources and the transformation of natural landscapes under the influence of human economic activity have led to changes in the natural water balance of river drainage basins. The negative processes thereof are intensified by climatic changes that have significantly disturbed the hydrological regime, determined by changes in water content and river flow dynamics. The retrospective study and prediction of the flow of the Dnieper River was carried out using multivariate statistics and adaptive methods of nonlinear time series analysis. The anomalous features were identified and the main periods of changes in the water regime of the river for 190 years (1818–2008) were determined using the standard root-mean-square deviation and wavelet analysis. As a result of non-linear prediction, it was determined that if the tendency of anthropogenic and climatic formation of the water regime of the Dnieper River sustains, there is a 90% probability of insignificant but steady trend and cyclical reduction of the average annual flow by 1.6 m3/s per year to 1120 ± 270 m3/s by 2040. The results of the detailed retrospective analysis for 190 years and the prediction of the probability of changes in the flow of the Dnieper river confirm the previous conclusions of many scientists regarding the significant transformation of the ecosystem of the transboundary river and provide new knowledge regarding the main stages of formation of the water regime and the probability of further regulation of the flow of the Dnieper river if the current conditions of the negative impact of economic activities are maintained in the transboundary basin.
Rocznik
Strony
1--10
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 34 poz., rys.
Twórcy
  • Kherson State Agrarian University, Ukraine, 73006, Kherson, Stritens’ka str. 23
  • Kherson State Agrarian University, Ukraine, 73006, Kherson, Stritens’ka str. 23
  • National University of Water and Environmental Engineering, Ukraine, 33028, Rivne, Soborna str. 11
  • Kherson State Agrarian University, Ukraine, 73006, Kherson, Stritens’ka str. 23
Bibliografia
  • 1. Anderson T. 1976. Statystical analysis of time series. Moscow: Nauka: 343.
  • 2. Andrianova О.R., Belevich R.R. and Skipa М.I. 2003. On some distinctive features of the climatic variability of the flow rates of the Danube, Dnieper Rivers and sea level in Odessa in the XX century: http://www.ecologylife.ru/ekologiya-chernogomorya-2003/o-nekotoryih-osobennostyah-klimaticheskoy-izmenchivosti-rashodovrek-dunayadnepra-i-urovnya-morya-v-odesse-v-xx-stoletii.html#more-1392.
  • 3. Brown R.G. 1971. Economic Order Quantities for Materials Subject to Engineering Changes. Production and Inventory Management 12 (2): P. 89–91.
  • 4. Cesoniene L., Dapkiene M, Sileikiene D., et al 2017. Impact of Plungė City wastewater on water quality of Mažoji Sruoja River. Environmental Research, Engineering and Management 73 (3): 32–43 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.erem.73.3.16268
  • 5. Dudiak N.V., Pichura V.I., Potravka L.A. and Stratichuk N.V. 2019. Geomodelling of Destruction of Soils of Ukrainian Steppe Due to Water Erosion. Journal of Ecological Engineering 20 (8): 192–198.
  • 6. Hrebin V.V. 2006. Geographical and hydrological analysis as research method of contemporary changes in water regime of rivers. Hydrology, hydrochemistry and hydroecology 9: 17–30.
  • 7. Jayawardena A.W. Li W.K. and Xu P. 2002. Neighbourhood selection for local modelling and prediction of hydrological time series. Journal of Hydrology 258(1–4): 40–57.
  • 8. Kacienė G. 2018. Pollution of Small Kaunas Rivers with Biogenic Compounds and Heavy Metals. Environmental Research, Engineering and Management 74 (2): 15–22 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.erem.74.2.20615
  • 9. Kartvelishvili N.A. 1981. Stochastic hydrology. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat: 168.
  • 10. Khilchevskyi V.K. and Romas І.М. 2007. Hydroloho-hydrochemical characteristic of the minimum flow of the rivers of the Dnieper basin. Kyiv: NikaCenter: 184.
  • 11. Kleopatrov D.I. and Frenkel А.А. 1973. Prediction of economic indicators using simple exponential smoothing method. Statistical analysis of economic time series and prediction. Мoscow: Nauka: 298.
  • 12. Korzhov Ye.I. 2010. Certain environmentally significant aspects of the water regime of the lower Dnieper. Scientific conference dedicated to the Science day: Collection of research papers. Kherson 3: 4–9.
  • 13. Kostianitsyn М. N. 1964. Hydrology of mouth area of Dnieper and Southern Buh. Мoscow: Gidrometeoizdat: 336.
  • 14. Kovalenko V.V., Gaydukova E.V. and Kuassi А.B.G. 2008. Fractal diagnostics of river flow for sustainable description of perennial fluctuations of hydrological characteristics. Meteorology and hydrology 4: 73–80.
  • 15. Kuzmenko Ya. V., Lisetskiy F.N. and Pichura V.I. 2012. Estimation and prediction of the flow of small rivers in the context of anthropogenic impacts and climate change. Modern problems of science and education 6: 1–9
  • 16. Lisetskii F.N., Pichura V.I., Pavlyuk Y.V., et al. 2015. Comparative assessment of methods for forecasting river runoff with different conditions of organization. Research Journal of Pharmaceutical, Biological and Chemical Sciences 6 (4): 56–60.
  • 17. Lisetskii FN, Degtyar AV, Buryak ZhA 2015. Rivers and water bodies Belogoriya: Belgorod: Konstanta: 362 p.
  • 18. Lisetskiy F.N., Stolba V.F. and Pichura V.I. 2013. Periodicity of climatic, hydrological processes and lake sedimentation in the south of the East European Plain. Contemporary problems of ecology 4: 19–25.
  • 19. Mayer Y. 1995. Wavelets, generalized white noise and fractional: the synthesis of fractional Brownian motion. The Journal of Fourier Analysis and Applications 5 (5): 465–494.
  • 20. Osadchii V. I., Nabyvanets B. I., Osadcha N. М., et al 2008. Hydrochemical reference book. Surface waters of Ukraine. Hydrochemical calculations. Methods of analysis. Kyiv: Nika-Center: 656.
  • 21. Pichura V. I., Malchykova D.S., Ukrainskij P.A., et al 2018. Anthropogenic Transformation of Hydrological Regime of The Dnieper River. Indian Journal of Ecology 45 (3): 445–453.
  • 22. Pichura V.I., Domaratsky Y.A., Yaremko Yu.I. , et al 2017. Strategic Ecological Assessment of the State of the Transboundary Catchment Basin of the Dnieper River Under Extensive Agricultural Load. Indian Journal of Ecology 44 (3): 442–450.
  • 23. Pichura V.I., Pilipenko Yu.V., Lisetskiy F.N., et al 2015. Forecasting of Hydrochemichal Regime of the Lower Dnieper Section using Neurotechnologies. Hydrobiological Journal 51 (3): 100–110.
  • 24. Pichura V.I., Potravka L.A., Dudiak N.V., et al 2019. Retrospective and Forecast of Heterochronal Climatic Fluctuations Within Territory of Dnieper Basin. Indian Journal of Ecology 46 (2): 402–407.
  • 25. Prytkov M. Ya. and Vinogradova О.М. 2007. Zoning of the Lake Ladoga basin under the conditions of the formation of the annual river flow. Geography and natural resources. Science magazine 1: 76–83.
  • 26. Ratkovich D. Ya. and Bolgov М.V. 1997. Stochastic models of fluctuations of the water balance components of river basin. Moscow: 262.
  • 27. Regonda S.K., Sivakumar В. and Jain A. 2004. Temporal scaling in river flow: can it be chaotic? Hydrological Sciences 24: 373–385.
  • 28. Shvets G.I. 1979. Centuries-long variability of the flow of the Dnieper River. Мoscow: Gidrometeoizdat: 84.
  • 29. Sivakumar B. 2004. Chaos theory in geophysics: past, present and future. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 19: 441–462.
  • 30. The Ecological Condition of the Dnepr Basin on the territory of Russia 2009: Edited by GM Chernogayeva, AS Zelenov, MS Zelenova, YuA Malevanov, Moscow: Meteoagency Rossgidrometa: 230 p.
  • 31. Vyshnevskyi V.І., Stashuk V.А. and Sakevych А.М. 2011. Hydro-economic complex in the Dnieper basin. Kyiv: Interpress LTD: 188.
  • 32. Yakovlev A. N. 2003. Introduction to wavelet transform. Novosibirsk: Publ. NSTU: 104.
  • 33. Yushkina O.A. 2009. Analysis and prediction of temporal variability of the river flow using nonlinear dynamics methods: thesis abstract ... cand. sc.(geographical). Irkutsk: 20.
  • 34. Zhukynskyi V.N., Zhuravlova L.А. and Ivanov А.I. 1989. Dnieper-Bug estuary system. Kyiv: Naukova dumka: 374.
Uwagi
Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-b723a973-2eac-45f2-9db6-9dab765a2f3e
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