The effects of adopting the anti-smog resolution on air quality – the case study from Krakow

• Autorzy: Herman Sergiusz , Będowska-Sójka Barbara , Paccagnini Alessia

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.34659/eis.2025.93.2.931

Warianty tytułu

PL

Skutki przyjęcia uchwały antysmogowej na jakość powietrza – studium przypadku Krakowa

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

We evaluate the impact of Krakow’s Anti-Smog Resolution, which was passed on January 15, 2016, and prohibits the use of coal and wood within the city. We use random forest, interrupted time series, and Bayesian structural time series models to assess air quality gains in terms of PM10, PM2.5, and benzo(a)pyrene concentrations, predicting pollution levels if the legislation had not been implemented. The results show significant reductions in pollutant concentrations: PM10 fell by 23% to 39%, PM2.5 by 23% to 36% and benzo(a)pyrene in PM10 by 39% to 41%, with the highest declines occurring during the heating season. These findings indicate the efficacy of Krakow's legislative strategy, offering evidence-based benchmarks for policymakers and public health officials in other cities considering similar residential heating restrictions to achieve measurable air quality improvements.

PL

Oceniamy wpływ krakowskiej uchwały antysmogowej, która została przyjęta 15 stycznia 2016 r. i zakazuje używania węgla i drewna na terenie miasta. Wykorzystujemy metodę lasu losowego, przerywanych szeregów czasowych i Bayesowskich strukturalnych szeregów czasowych do oceny poprawy jakości powietrza pod względem stężeń PM10, PM2,5 i benzo(a)pirenu, przewidując poziomy zanieczyszczeń w sytuacji, gdyby przepisy nie zostały wdrożone. Wyniki wskazują na znaczne obniżenie stężeń zanieczyszczeń: PM10 spadło od 23% do 39%, PM2,5 od 23% do 36%, a benzo(a)piren w PM10 od 39% do 41%, przy czym największe spadki miały miejsce w sezonie grzewczym. Wyniki te wskazują na skuteczność strategii legislacyjnej Krakowa, dostarczając opartych na dowodach punktów odniesienia dla decydentów politycznych i przedstawicieli służby zdrowia publicznego w innych miastach rozważających wprowadzenie podobnych ograniczeń dotyczących ogrzewania mieszkań w celu osiągnięcia wymiernej poprawy jakości powietrza.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

anti-smog resolution; pollution; Krakow; random forest; interrupted time series; Bayesian STM

PL

uchwała antysmogowa; zanieczyszczenie; Kraków; las losowy; przerywane szeregi czasowe; Bayesowskie strukturalne szeregi czasowe

• Wydawca: Polskie Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistów Środowiska i Zasobów Naturalnych
• Czasopismo: Economics and Environment
• Rocznik: 2025
• Tom: No. 2
• Strony: art. no. 931
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 62 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Herman Sergiusz

• Poznań University of Economics and Business, Niepodległości Avenue 10, 61-875 Poznań, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2753-1982

autor

Będowska-Sójka Barbara

• Poznań University of Economics and Business

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5193-8304

autor

Paccagnini Alessia

• University College Dublin Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2421-7242%29

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