Teoria szarych systemów – nowa metodologia analizy i oceny złożonych systemów. Przegląd możliwości

• Autorzy: Cempel C.

Warianty tytułu

EN

Grey systems theory – new methodology of analysis and evaluation of complex systems

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

PL

Większość złożonych systemów, jakie rozpatruje się w nauce, technologii i gospodarce, ma niepełne i niepewne informacje o swej strukturze i zachowaniu. Do grona metod, jakimi można je analizować i oceniać (probabilistyka, zbiory rozmyte i zgrubne), warto dołączyć teorię sza-rych systemów (GST), bo nie wymaga ona wielu założeń o wielkości i rozkładzie próbki tkwią-cych we wspomnianych metodach, a upoważniająca do zastosowań GST minimalna liczba danych n ≥ 4. Za jej pomocą można prognozować przyszłe zachowanie systemu, oceniać współzależność wektorów obserwacji oraz oceniać efektywność reakcji na możliwe sytuacje i podejmować optymalne decyzje w tym względzie, a także je grupować i badać skupienie.

EN

Most of the complex systems we are considering in science, technology, social care and economy have uncertain and incomplete information concerning the system behaviour, its structure, boundaries, interaction with environment, etc. In order to omit these troubles and information lack, we use sometimes statistics and probabilistic approach, fuzzy and rough sets methodology. As it is shown in this review paper, we can use with much success new methodology – Grey Systems Theory (GST), which do not need any assumption concern-ing the distribution of sample, and high amount of data, because minimal number of obser-vations for GST use is only n ≥ 4. Using GST one can forecast the future behaviour of complex system, evaluate interdependence of its observation vectors (cause and effect), and evaluate optimal decisions possible to undertake in a given situations of decision making, as well as clustering of the similar systems.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

szare systemy; niepełna i niepewna informacja; prognozowanie; ocena wpływu; podejmowanie decyzji; grupowanie

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo Politechniki Poznańskiej
• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Poznańskiej. Organizacja i Zarządzanie
• Rocznik: 2014
• Tom: Nr 63
• Strony: 9--20
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 60 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Cempel C.

• Instytut Mechaniki Stosowanej, Wydział Budowy Maszyn i Zarządzania Politechniki Poznańskiej

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