Ultra-short-term wind power prediction based on copula function and bivariate EMD decomposition algorithm

• Autorzy: Liu Haiqing , Lin Weijian , Li Yuancheng

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24425/aee.2020.133025

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Against the background of increasing installed capacity of wind power in the power generation system, high-precision ultra-short-term wind power prediction is significant for safe and reliable operation of the power generation system. We present a method for ultra-short-term wind power prediction based on a copula function, bivariate empirical mode decomposition (BEMD) algorithm and gated recurrent unit (GRU) neural network. First we use the copula function to analyze the nonlinear correlation between wind power and external factors to extract the key factors influencing wind power generation. Then the joint data composed of the key factors and wind power are decomposed into a series of stationary subsequence data by a BEMD algorithm which can decompose the bivariate data jointly. Finally, the prediction model based on a GRU network uses the decomposed data as the input to predict the power output in the next four hours. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of ultra-short-term wind power prediction.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

bivariate EMD decomposition; copula function; GRU network; meteorological factor; ultra-short-term wind power prediction

• Wydawca: Polish Academy of Sciences, Committee on Electrical Engineering
• Czasopismo: Archives of Electrical Engineering
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: Vol. 69, nr 2
• Strony: 271--286
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 31 poz., rys., tab., wz.

Twórcy

autor

Liu Haiqing

• North China Electric Power University China

autor

Lin Weijian

• North China Electric Power University China

autor

Li Yuancheng

• North China Electric Power University China

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).