An analysis of the influence of legal changes on the number of traffic crashes and fatalities in Poland in 2022

• Autorzy: Tutka Paweł , Kunikowski Piotr , Łopata Emil

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.7409/rabdim.025.014

Warianty tytułu

PL

Analiza wpływu zmian prawnych na liczbę wypadków drogowych i ofiar śmiertelnych w Polsce w 2022 roku

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The aim of this article is to examine the impact of the tightening of road laws in Poland in 2022 on the number of recorded crashes involving casualties and fatalities. Throughout 2022, a series of legal changes were introduced in Poland that increased penalties, primarily financial, for traffic violations and crimes. At the same time, the number of crashes involving casualties in the analysed year significantly decreased compared to 2021. This study examined the statistical significance of the impact of these legal changes on road safety and estimated the decrease in the number of crashes involving casualties and fatalities due to legislative activity. Interrupted time series analysis was the primary tool used for this purpose. Additionally, the results obtained for Poland were compared with data from selected neighbouring countries. The findings indicate a significant and statistically meaningful impact of the legal changes. Based on the proposed model, the decrease can be estimated at approximately 6-8% for the number of crashes and about 22% for the number of fatalities.

PL

Celem artykułu jest ocena wpływu zaostrzenia przepisów ruchu drogowego w Polsce w 2022 roku na liczbę zarejestrowanych wypadków drogowych oraz ofiar śmiertelnych. W analizowanym okresie wprowadzono szereg zmian legislacyjnych, które istotnie zwiększyły sankcje – głównie finansowe – za wykroczenia i przestępstwa drogowe. Jednocześnie odnotowano wyraźny spadek liczby wypadków w porównaniu z rokiem 2021. W opisanych w artykule badaniach przeanalizowano statystyczną istotność wpływu wprowadzonych regulacji na poziom bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowego oraz oszacowano skalę redukcji liczby wypadków i ofiar śmiertelnych będącą efektem działań legislacyjnych. Podstawowym narzędziem analitycznym była analiza przerywanych szeregów czasowych. Ponadto wyniki dla Polski zestawiono z danymi pochodzącymi z wybranych państw sąsiednich. Uzyskane rezultaty wskazują na istotny statystycznie oraz znaczący wpływ zmian prawnych. W oparciu o zaproponowany model oszacowano, że liczba wypadków uległa zmniejszeniu o około 6–8%, a liczba ofiar śmiertelnych – o około 22%.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

crashes preventions; COVID influence; interrupted time series; law enforcement; legal tightening

PL

egzekwowanie prawa; przerywane szeregi czasowe; wpływ pandemii COVID-19; zaostrzanie prawa; zapobieganie wypadkom

• Wydawca: Instytut Badawczy Dróg i Mostów
• Czasopismo: Roads and Bridges - Drogi i Mosty
• Rocznik: 2025
• Tom: Vol. 24, no. 3
• Strony: 253--266
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 37 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Tutka Paweł

• Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, 16 Armii Ludowej Av., 00-637 Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0879-0310

autor

Kunikowski Piotr

• Heller Consult, 8 Chałubińskiego St., 00-613 Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0009-0005-3526-6217

autor

Łopata Emil

• Heller Consult, 8 Chałubińskiego St., 00-613 Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0009-0005-9928-3139

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