PL EN


Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
Tytuł artykułu

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict from 2014 to 2023 and the Significance of a Strategic Victory in Cyberspace

Treść / Zawartość
Identyfikatory
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The article explores Russian engagement in cyberspace during the conflict with Ukraine. Many experts have been surprised not only by the lack of coordination between offensive military operations in cyberspace and other domains, but also by the absence of significant cyberattacks. The central argument revolves around the perceived inadequacy of Russian capabilities. However, the authors contend that such an assessment is flawed and stems from the imposition of Western expectations onto a non-Western actor. They argue that the Russians’ employment of cyberspace not only aligns with their strategic culture but also represents a continuation of their utilisation of cyber as a tool for disinformation, which was previously observed during the war with Georgia in 2008 and the initial phase of the conflict with Ukraine in 2014. The aim of the article is threefold. Firstly, it discusses the Western strategic discourse regarding the potential use of cyberspace in warfare. In contrast to the position of Western experts, the second part of the article presents the Russian approach. The third section describes how the application of Russian cyber warfare concepts has played out in practice during the conflict in Ukraine.
Słowa kluczowe
Rocznik
Strony
1--20
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 64 poz.
Bibliografia
  • 1. S. Gordon, E. Rosenbach. (Dec. 14, 2021). “America’s Cyber-Reckoning,” Foreign Affairs. [Online]. Available: https://www.foreignaffairs.com... [Accessed: May 01, 2023].
  • 2. N. Kostyuk. (Jun. 23, 2022). “Why Cyber Dogs Have Yet to Bark Loudly in Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” Texas National Security Review. [Online]. Available: https://tnsr.org/2022/06/why-c... [Accessed: May 01, 2023].
  • 3. J. Lewis. (Jun. 16, 2022). “Cyber War and Ukraine,” Center for Strategic and International Studies. [Online]. Available: https://www.csis.org/analysis/... [Accessed: May 01, 2023].
  • 4. M. Willett. (Oct. 06, 2022). “The Cyber Dimension of the Russia – Ukraine War,” IISS.[Online]. Available: https://www.iiss.org/blogs/sur... [Accessed May 01, 2023].
  • 5. R. C. Maness, B. Valeriano, K. Hedgecock, J. Macias, B. Jensen. (2022, Sep. 22).“Expanding the Dyadic Cyber Incident and Campaign Dataset (DCID): Cyber Conflict from 2000,” The Cyber Defense Review. [Online]. Available: https://cyberdefensereview.arm... Nov. 03, 2023].
  • 6. M. Hasian, S. T. Lawson, M. McFarlane, The Rhetorical Invention of America’s National Security State. Lanham, MA: Lexington Books, 2015.
  • 7. K. Alexander. (Mar. 23, 2012). “Keith B. Alexander, Commander, U.S. Cyber Command, Memorandum for Record, Subject: United States Cyber Command (USCYBERCOM) Commander’s Strategic Assessment for Operating in Cyberspace –Preventing a Pearl Harbor Environment. Unclassified. National Security Archive,”nsarchive.gwu.edu. [Online]. Available: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/docu... [Accessed: Nov. 03, 2023].
  • 8. S. Lawson, M. K. Middleton, “Cyber Pearl Harbor: Analogy, fear, and the framing of cyber security threats in the United States, 1991 – 2016,” First Monday, vol. 24,no. 3, 2019, doi: 10.5210/fm.v24i3.9623.
  • 9. M. Libicki. (1997). “Defending Cyberspace and Other Metaphors”. [Online].Available: https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/... [Accessed: Nov. 03, 2023].
  • 10. “What the Heck Is Threat casting?”. (Sep 15, 2017). Army Cyber Institute. [Online].Available: https://cyber.army.mil/Library... [Accessed: May 01, 2023].
  • 11. J. Marks. (Feb. 24, 2022). “Here’s what cyber pros are watching in the Ukraine conflict,” Washington Post. [Online]. Available: https://www.washingtonpost.com...: Aug. 02, 2023].
  • 12. W. Courtney, P. Wilson. (Dec. 08, 2021). “Expect ‘shock and awe’ if Russia invades Ukraine,” The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/in... [Accessed: Aug. 03, 2021].
  • 13. K. Giles. (Dec. 21, 2021). “Putin does not need to invade Ukraine to get his way, ”Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank. [Online]. Available: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2...: May 01, 2023].
  • 14. D. Cattler, D. Black. (Apr. 06, 2022). “The Myth of the Missing Cyberwar, ”Foreign Affairs. [Online]. Available: https://www.foreignaffairs.com...: May 01, 2023].
  • 15. J. Bateman. (Dec. 16, 2022). “Russia’s Wartime Cyber Operations in Ukraine: Military Impacts, Influences, and Implications,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. [Online]. Available: https://carnegieendowment.org/... [Accessed: Nov. 15, 2023].
  • 16. M. Miller. (Jan. 11, 2023). “Russia’s cyberattacks aim to ‘terrorize’ Ukrainians, ”Politico. [Online]. Available: https://www.politico.com/news/... [Accessed: Dec. 02, 2023].
  • 17. Microsoft. (Jun. 22, 2022). “Defending Ukraine: Early Lessons from the Cyber War.” [Online]. Available: https://query.prod.cms.rt.micr... [Accessed: Nov. 07, 2023].
  • 18. J. Marks. (Mar. 03, 2022). “11 reasons we haven’t seen big Russian cyberattacks yet,” Washington Post. [Online]. Available: https://www.washingtonpost.com... [Accessed: Jun. 03, 2023].
  • 19. J. Bateman, N. Beecroft, G. Wilde. (Dec. 19, 2022). “What the Russian Invasion Reveals About the Future of Cyber Warfare,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. [Online]. Available: https://carnegieendowment.org/... [Accessed: Jul. 23, 2023].
  • 20. D. Dziwisz, “Cyber Pearl Harbor is Not Coming: US Politics Between War and Peace,” Politeja, vol. 19, no. 4 (79), 2022, doi: 10.12797/politeja.19.2022.79.07.
  • 21. L. Maschmeyer, “A new and better quiet option? Strategies of subversion and cyber conflict,” Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 1 – 25, 2022, doi:10.1080/01402390.2022.2104253.
  • 22. S. Zilincik, I. Duyvesteyn, “Strategic studies and cyber warfare,” Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 11, pp. 1 – 22, 2023, doi: 10.1080/01402390.2023.2174106.
  • 23. L. Morris, M. Mazarr, J. Hornung, S. Pezard, A. Binnendijk, M. Kepe. (2019).“Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War,” RAND Corporation. [Online].Available: https://www.rand.org/content/d... [Accessed: Nov. 03, 2023].
  • 24. G. Popp, S. Canna. (2016). “The Characterization and Conditions of the Gray Zone A Virtual Think Tank Analysis (ViTTa) Prepared for Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment Gray Zone Conflicts, Challenges, and Opportunities: A Multi-Agency Deep Dive Assessment,” NSI, Inc. [Online]. Available: https://nsiteam.com/social/wp-... [Accessed: Nov. 03, 2023].
  • 25. Office of the Secretary of Defense. (2020). “Office of the Secretary of Defense Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China.” [Online]. Available: https://media.defense.gov/2020...: Nov. 03, 2023].
  • 26. S. Takashi. (2020). “Overview of current research,” Nakasone Peace Institute,[Online]. Available: https://www.npi.or.jp/en/resea... [Accessed: Nov. 03, 2023].
  • 27. J. R. Van der Velde. (Jul. 23, 2018). “Make Cyberspace Great Again Too!,” Real Clear Defense, https://www.realcleardefense.c... [Accessed: Jul. 23, 2023].
  • 28. G. Casey. (Aug. 15, 2007). “Aug. 14, 2007 – Remarks at the National Press Club,” https://www.army.mil/article/4... [Accessed: Jul. 15, 2023].
  • 29. J. Darczewska. (2015). “The devil is in the details. Information warfare in the light of Russia’s military doctrine”. Warsaw: Centre for Eastern Studies. May 2015.[Online]. Available: https://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/d... [Accessed: Nov. 03, 2023].
  • 30. D. Minic, “How the Russian army changed its concept of war, 1993 – 2022,” Journal of Strategic Studies, pp. 1 – 35, 2023, doi: 10.1080/01402390.2023.2199445.
  • 31. “Doctrine of Information Security of the Russian Federation”. (Dec. 05, 2016).http://www.scrf.gov.ru/securit... [Accessed: Nov. 02, 2023].
  • 32. “Strategy of National Security of the Russian Federation”. (2021). [Online].Available: https://paulofilho.net.br/wp-c... [Accessed: Oct. 10, 2023].
  • 33. M. Skak, “Russian strategic culture: the role of today’s chekisty,” Contemporary Politics, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 324 – 341, 2016, doi: 0.1080/13569775.2016.1201317.
  • 34. C. Pursiainen, “Russia’s Critical Infrastructure Policy: What do we Know About it?,” European Journal for Security Research, vol. 6, 2020, doi: 10.1007/s41125-020-00070-0.
  • 35. K. B. Payne, J. S. Foster, “Russian strategy Expansion, crisis and conflict, ”Comparative Strategy, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 1 – 89, 2017, doi: 10.1080/01495933.2017.1277121.
  • 36. S. Fabian, “The Russian hybrid warfare strategy – neither Russian nor strategy,” Defense & Security Analysis, vol. 35, no. 3, pp. 308 – 325, 2019, doi:10.1080/14751798.2019.1640424.
  • 37. J. A. Kerr, “Concept Misalignment and Cyberspace Instability: Lessons from Cyber-Enabled Disinformation,” in Cyberspace and Instability, R. Chesney, J.S hires, M. Smeets, Eds: Edinburgh University Press, 2023, pp. 99 – 126.
  • 38. M. Kofman, A. Fink, D. Gorenburg, M. Chesnut, J. Edmonds, J. Waller. (2021).“Russian Military Strategy: Core Tenets and Operational Concepts,” [Online].Available: https://www.cna.org/archive/CN... [Accessed: May 01, 2023].
  • 39. R. Thornton, M. Miron. (2022). “Winning Future Wars: Russian Offensive Cyber and Its Vital Importance,” [Online]. Available: https://cyberdefensereview.arm... [Accessed: May 01, 2023].
  • 40. J. Hakala, J. Melnychuk. (2021). “Russia’s Strategy in Cyberspace,” NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence, [Online]. Available: https://stratcomcoe.org/cuploa... [Accessed: Jul. 12, 2023].
  • 41. K. Giles, A. Seaboyer. (2019). “The Russian Information Warfare Construct,” Defence Research and Development Canada, [Online]. Available: https://cradpdf.drdc-rddc.gc.c... [Accessed: Oct. 10, 2023].
  • 42. K. Giles. (2016). “Russia’s ‘New’ Tools for Confronting the West Continuity and Innovation in Moscow’s Exercise of Power Russia’s ‘New’ Tools for Confronting the West,” [Online]. Available: https://www.chathamhouse.org/s... [Accessed: Sep. 09, 2023].
  • 43. C. Reach, A. A. Blanc, E. Geist. (2022). “Russian Military Strategy Organizing Operations for the Initial Period of War Research Report,” Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, [Online]. Available: https://www.rand.org/content/d...: Jun. 12, 2023].
  • 44. C. Reach, A. Demus, M. Grisé, K. Holynska, C. Lynch, D. Massicot, D. Woodworth.(2023). “Russia’s Evolution Toward a Unified Strategic Operation. The Influence of Geography and Conventional Capacity Research Report,” RAND Corporation, Santa Monica. [Online]. Available: https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/trec... [Accessed: Nov. 03, 2023].
  • 45. M. J. Kari, K. Pynnöniemi, “Theory of strategic culture: An analytical framework for Russian cyber threat perception,” Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 46, no. 1,pp. 56 – 84, 2019, doi: 10.1080/01402390.2019.1663411.
  • 46. S. P. White. (Mar. 20, 2018). “Understanding Cyberwarfare: Lessons from the Russia-Georgia War,” Modern War Institute, https://mwi.westpoint.edu/unde... [Accessed: Oct. 06, 2023].
  • 47. E. Gartzke, “The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War in Cyberspace Back Downto Earth,” International Security, vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 41 – 73, 2013, doi: 10.1162/ISEC_a_00136.
  • 48. K. Giles, P. Hanson, R. Lyne, J. Nixey, J. Sherr, A. Wood. (2015). “Chatham House Report: The Russian Challenge,” London: Chatham House. [Online].Available: https://www.chathamhouse.org/s...: Oct. 10, 2023].
  • 49. P. Tucker. (Apr. 28, 2014). “Why Ukraine Has Already Lost the Cyberwar, Too,” Defense One. [Online]. Available: https://www.defenseone.com/tec... [Accessed: Oct. 03, 2023].
  • 50. J. A. Lewis, “Compelling Opponents to Our Will’: the Role of Cyber Warfare in Ukraine,” in Cyber War in Perspective: Russian Aggression against Ukraine, K. Geers, Ed. Tallinn: NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, 2015, pp. 39 – 47.
  • 51. J. J. Driedger, “Russian Active Measures against Ukraine (2004) and Estonia (2007),”in Russian Active measures – yesterday, today, tomorrow, O. Bertelsen, Ed. Stuttgart: Columbia University Press, 2021, pp. 177 – 213.
  • 52. G. B. Mueller, B. Jensen, B. Valeriano, R. C. Maness, J. M. Macias. (Jul. 13, 2023).“Cyber Operations during the Russo-Ukrainian War,” Center for Strategic and International Studies. [Online]. Available: https://www.csis.org/analysis/... [Accessed: Nov. 03, 2023].
  • 53. J. J. Driedger, “Risk acceptance and offensive war: The case of Russia under the Putin regime,” Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 44, no. 2, pp. 199 – 225, 2023, doi:10.1080/13523260.2023.2164974.
  • 54. T. Bukkvoll, “Why Putin Went to War: Ideology, Interests and Decision-making in the Russian Use of Force in Crimea and Donbas,” Contemporary Politics, vol. 22,no. 3, pp. 267 – 282, 2016, doi: 10.1080/13569775.2016.1201310.
  • 55. K. Geers. (Aug. 11, 2022). “Computer Hacks in the Russia-Ukraine War,” DEFCON Conference. [Online]. Available: https://media.defcon.org/DEF%2... [Accessed: Oct. 10, 2023].
  • 56. “An Overview of Russia’s Cyberattack Activity in Ukraine Special Report: Ukraine Digital Security Unit”. (Apr. 27, 2022). Microsoft Digital Security Unit. [Online].Available: https://query.prod.cms.rt.micr...: Oct. 10, 2023].
  • 57. L. Maschmeyer, “The Subversive Trilemma: Why Cyber Operations Fall Short of Expectations,” International Security, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 51 – 90, 2021, doi: 10.1162/isec_a_00418.
  • 58. H. Lin. (2022). “Russian Cyber Operations in the Invasion of Ukraine,” The Cyber Defense Review, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 31 – 46. [Online]. Available: https://www.jstor.org/stable/4....
  • 59. S. J. Freedberg Jr. (May 01, 2023). “Cyber lessons from Ukraine: Prepare for prolonged conflict, not a knockout blow,” Breaking Defense. [Online]. Available: https://breakingdefense.com/20... [Accessed: Jul. 07, 2023].
  • 60. T. Starks, A. Schaffer. (Sep. 04, 2022). “Did Russia Mess up Its Cyberwar with Ukraine before It Even invaded?,” Washington Post. [Online]. Available: https://www.washingtonpost.com... [Accessed: Sep. 10, 2023].
  • 61. A. Levite. (Apr. 18, 2023). “Integrating Cyber into Warfighting: Some Early Takeaways from the Ukraine Conflict,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/... [Accessed: Jul. 07, 2023].
  • 62. D. E. Sanger, J. E. Barnes. (Jun. 22, 2022). “Many Russian Cyberattacks Failed in First Months of Ukraine War, Study Says,” The New York Times. [Online]. Available: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/0...: Jun. 10, 2023].
  • 63. J. Watling, N. Reynolds. (May 19, 2023). “Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine,” Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. [Online]. Available: https://www.rusi.org/explore-o... [Accessed: Oct. 10, 2023].
  • 64. T. Thomas. (2019). “McLean, VA Russian Military Thought: Concepts and Elements, ”MITRE CORP MCLEAN VA. [Online]. Available: https://www.mitre.org/sites/de...: Oct. 11, 2023].
Uwagi
Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-b61515ed-e75b-46aa-8143-f98bb8ff50fb
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.