Trend analysis and forecasting of the Gökırmak River streamflow (Turkey)

• Autorzy: Arslan Gökhan , Kale Semih , Yavuz Sönmez Adem

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1515/ohs-2020-0021

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The objective of this paper is to determine the trend and to estimate the streamflow of the Gökırmak River. The possible trend of the streamflow was forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Time series and trend analyses were performed using monthly streamflow data for the period between 1999 and 2014. Pettitt's change point analysis was employed to detect the time of change for historical streamflow time series. Kendall's tau and Spearman's rho tests were also conducted. The results of the change point analysis determined the change point as 2008. The time series analysis showed that the streamflow of the river had a decreasing trend from the past to the present. Results of the trend analysis forecasted a decreasing trend for the streamflow in the future. The decreasing trend in the streamflow may be related to climate change. This paper provides preliminary knowledge of the streamflow trend for the Gökırmak River.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

ARIMA; climate change; flow monitoring; forecast; river; seasonal; water resources

• Wydawca: Institute of Oceanography University of Gdańsk
• Czasopismo: Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: Vol. 49, No. 3
• Strony: 230--246
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 94 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Arslan Gökhan

• Department of Fishing and Fish Processing Technology, Fisheries Faculty, Atatürk University, 25000 Erzurum, Turkey

autor

Kale Semih

• Department of Fishing and Fish Processing Technology, Faculty of Marine Sciences and Technology, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, 17020 Çanakkale, Turkey

autor

Yavuz Sönmez Adem

• Department of Basic Sciences, Fisheries Faculty, Kastamonu University, 37100 Kastamonu, Turkey

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).