Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources of upper Awash River sub-basin, Ethiopia

• Autorzy: Heyi Eshetu Ararso , Dinka Megersa Olumana , Mamo Girma

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24425/jwld.2022.140394

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This study tried to assess the impact of climate change on water resources of the upper Awash River sub-basin (Ethiopia) using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The future climatic parameters (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures) were generated by downscaling outputs of HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) general circulation model to watershed level for A2a (medium-high) and B2a (medium-low) emission scenarios at representative stations (Addis Ababa, Ginchi and Bishoftu). These SDSM generated climatic data were used to develop current/baseline period (1971-2010) and future climate change scenarios: 2020s (2011-2040), 2050s (2041-2070) and 2080s (2071-2099). The projected future rainfall and mean monthly potential evapotranspiration at these stations were weighted and fed to HBV hydrological model (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model) for future stream flow simulation. These simulated future daily flow time series were processed to monthly, seasonal and annual time scales and the values were compared with that of base period for impact assessment. The simulation result revealed the possibility for significant mean flow reductions in the future during Summer or “Kiremt” (main rainy season) and apparent increase during “Belg” or winter (dry season). Autumn flow volume showed decreasing trend (2020s), but demonstrated increasing trend at 2050s and 2080s. A mean annual flow reduction (ranging from 13.0 to 29.4%) is also expected in the future for the three studied benchmark periods under both emission scenarios. Generally, the result signals that the water resources of upper Awash River basin will be expected to be severely affected by the changing climate. Therefore, different adaptation options should be carried out in order to reduce the likely impact and ensure water security in the sub-basin.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

climate change; downscaling; emission scenarios; hydrological modelling

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo ITP
• Czasopismo: Journal of Water and Land Development
• Rocznik: 2022
• Tom: no. 52
• Strony: 232--244
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 54 poz., mapy, tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Heyi Eshetu Ararso

• Oromia Agricultural Research Institute, Agricultural Engineering Research Directorate, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

autor

Dinka Megersa Olumana

• University of Johannesburg, Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, Department of Civil Engineering Sciences, PO Box 524, Auckland Park, 2006 Johannesburg, South Africa

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3032-7672

autor

Mamo Girma

• Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2593-3187

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).