Powiadomienia systemowe
- Sesja wygasła!
Tytuł artykułu
Treść / Zawartość
Pełne teksty:
Identyfikatory
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
This paper discusses three variants of how e-mobility development will affect the Polish Power System. Multivariate forecasts of annual new registrations of electric vehicles for up to seven years are developed. The forecasts use the direct trend trend extrapolation methods,methods based on the deterministic chaos theory, multiple regression models, and the Grey model. The number of electric vehicles in use was determined for 2019‒2025 based on the forecast new registrations. The forecasts were conducted in three variants for the annual electric energy demand in 2019‒2025, using the forecast number of electric vehicles and the forecast annual demand for electric energy excluding e-mobility. Forecasts were conducted in three variants for the daily load profile of power system for winter and summer seasons in the Polish Power system in 2019–2025 based on three variants of the forecast number of electric vehicles and forecast relative daily load profiles.
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
697--709
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 23 poz., rys., tab.
Twórcy
autor
- Electrical Power Engineering Institute, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland
autor
- Electrical Power Engineering Institute, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland
autor
- Electrical Power Engineering Institute, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland
autor
- Electrical Power Engineering Institute, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland
autor
- Electrical Power Engineering Institute, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland
autor
- Electrical Power Engineering Institute, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland
Bibliografia
- [1] P. Piotrowski, D. Baczyński, and P. Kapler, “Multi-variant forecasts of the number of electric vehicles in Poland until 2025 and their impact on annual electric energy demand”, Przegląd Elektrotechniczny (Electrical Review) 96 (1) 138–141 (2020), doi: 10.15199/48.2020.01.30 [in Polish].
- [2] “Poland electromobility development plan”, Ministry of Energy https://www.gov.pl/documents/33372/436746/DIT_PRE_PL.pdf/ebdf4105-ef77-91df-0ace-8fbb2dd18140 [in Polish].
- [3] “The Strategy of sustainable transport development until 2030”, https://www.gov.pl/attachment/e268e9f9-d7ca-473e-a7b1- 8731348155d9 [in Polish].
- [4] K.B. Lindberg, P. Seljom, H. Madsen, D. Fischer, and M. Korpas, “Long-term electricity load forecasting: Current and future trends”, Util. Policy 58, 102–119 (2019).
- [5] A. Klettke, A. Moser, T. Bossmann, P. Barberi, and L. Fournie, “Effect of electromobility on the power system and the integration of RES S13 Report”, METIS Studies 2018, metis_s13_final_report_electromobility_201806.pdf.
- [6] A. Kupczyk, J. Mączyńska, G. Redlarski, K. Tucki, A. Bączyk, and D. Rutkowski, “Selected aspects of biofuels market and the electromobility development in Poland: Current trends and forecasting changes”, Appl. Sci. 254 (9), 1–13 (2019), doi: 10.3390/app9020254.
- [7] U. Radovic, “Effects of electric vehicles on the Polish power generation system, emissions of CO2 and other air pollutants”, The Bulletin of The Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences 104, 69–84 (2018), doi: 10.24425/124366 [in Polish].
- [8] G. Benysek and M. Jarnut, “Electric vehicle charging infrastructure in Poland”, Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev., 16, 320–328 (2012).
- [9] G. Benysek, M.P. Kaźmierkowski, J. Popczyk, and R. Strzelecki, “Power electronic systems as a crucial part of Smart Grid infrastructure – a survey”, Bull. Pol. Ac.: Tech. 59 (4), 455–473 (2011).
- [10] M. Kłos, P. Marchel, J. Paska, R. Bielas, M. Błędzińska, Ł. Michalski, K. Wróblewski, and K. Zagrajek, “Forecast and impact of electromobility development on the Polish Electric Power System”, E3S Web of Conferences, vol. 84, 14th International Scientific Conference on Forecasting in Electric Power Engineering (PE), Podlesice, Poland, 2019.
- [11] R.M. Miskiewicz and A.J. Moradewicz, “Contactless power interface for plug-in electric vehicles in V2G systems”, Bull. Pol. Ac.: Tech. 59 (4), 561–568 (2011).
- [12] M. Michalczuk, L.M. Grzesiak, and B. Ufnalski, “Hybridization of the lithium energy storage for an urban electric vehicle”, Bull. Pol. Ac.: Tech. 61 (2), 325–333 (2013).
- [13] Y. Li, H. Wu, X. Xu, Y. Cai, and X. Sun, “Analysis on electromechanical coupling vibration characteristics of in-wheel motor in electric vehicles considering air gap eccentricity”, Bull. Pol. Ac.: Tech. 67 (5), 851–862 (2019).
- [14] N. Rietmann and T. Lieven, “How policy measures succeeded to promote electric mobility – Worldwide review and outlook”, J. Clean Prod. 206, 66–75 (2019), doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.09.121.
- [15] L. Goldie-Scot, “A Behind the Scenes Take on Lithium-ion Battery Prices”, March 5, 2019, https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/.
- [16] P. Piotrowski, “Forecasting in Power Engineering in different time horizons”, Prace Naukowe PW “Elektryka”, z. 144, Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Warszawskiej, 2013 [in Polish].
- [17] S. Liu and Y. Lin, Grey Systems. Theory and Applications, Springer, Berlin–Heidelberg, 2010.
- [18] I. Dobrzańska, K. Dąsal, J. Łyp, T. Popławski, and J. Sowiński, “Forecasting in Electric Power Engineering. Selected issues”, Wyd. Pol. Cz ̨ estochowskiej, Cz ̨ estochowa, 2002 [in Polish].
- [19] G. Dudek, “Short-term load forecasting using Theta method “, E3S Web of Conferences, vol. 84, 14th International Scientific Conference on Forecasting in Electric Power Engineering (PE), Podlesice, Poland, 2019.
- [20] T. Popławski, Selected issues of long-term forecasting in power systems, Wydawnictwo Politechniki Częstochowskiej, Częstochowa, 2012 [in Polish].
- [21] P. Piotrowski and M. Marzecki, “An expert human versus traditional forecasting methods in the task of forecasting the annual electrical energy demand in rural transformer stations MV/LV”, Przegląd Elektrotechniczny (Electrical Review) 93 (4) 81–85 (2017), doi: 10.15199/48.2017.04.21 [in Polish].
- [22] M. Kłos, J. Paska, D. Baczyński, P. Piotrowski, S. Robak, S. Rosłaniec, P. Helt, M. Błędzińska, R. Bielas, P. Kapler, T. Wójtowicz, and D. Pyza, “Energy efficiency through the development of electromobility in Poland”, Research project cofinanced by the Norwegian Financial Mechanism 2009–2014 under the Bilateral Cooperation Fund (2017) [in Polish]
- [23] P. Piotrowski, D. Baczyński, M. Kopyt, K. Szafranek, P. Helt, and T. Gulczyński: “Analysis of forecasted meteorological data (NWP) for efficient spatial forecasting of wind power generation”, Electr. Power Syst. Res. 175 (10), 105891 (2019), doi: 10.1016/j.epsr.2019.105891.
Uwagi
PL
Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-b2b59e94-e0bd-4ea8-a998-c6092a22132c