Comprehensive forecast of electromobility mid-term development in Poland and its impacts on power system demand

• Autorzy: Piotrowski P. , Baczyński D. , Robak S. , Kopyt M. , Piekarz M. , Polewaczyk M.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24425/bpasts.2020.134180

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper discusses three variants of how e-mobility development will affect the Polish Power System. Multivariate forecasts of annual new registrations of electric vehicles for up to seven years are developed. The forecasts use the direct trend trend extrapolation methods,methods based on the deterministic chaos theory, multiple regression models, and the Grey model. The number of electric vehicles in use was determined for 2019‒2025 based on the forecast new registrations. The forecasts were conducted in three variants for the annual electric energy demand in 2019‒2025, using the forecast number of electric vehicles and the forecast annual demand for electric energy excluding e-mobility. Forecasts were conducted in three variants for the daily load profile of power system for winter and summer seasons in the Polish Power system in 2019–2025 based on three variants of the forecast number of electric vehicles and forecast relative daily load profiles.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

mid-term forecast; electromobility; power system demand; load profile; EV; electric vehicle

• Wydawca: Polska Akademia Nauk, Wydział IV Nauk Technicznych
• Czasopismo: Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Technical Sciences
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: Vol. 68, nr 4
• Strony: 697--709
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 23 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Piotrowski P.

• Electrical Power Engineering Institute, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland

autor

Baczyński D.

• Electrical Power Engineering Institute, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland

autor

Robak S.

• Electrical Power Engineering Institute, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland

autor

Kopyt M.

• Electrical Power Engineering Institute, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland

autor

Piekarz M.

• Electrical Power Engineering Institute, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland

autor

Polewaczyk M.

• Electrical Power Engineering Institute, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland

Bibliografia

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• [21] P. Piotrowski and M. Marzecki, “An expert human versus traditional forecasting methods in the task of forecasting the annual electrical energy demand in rural transformer stations MV/LV”, Przegląd Elektrotechniczny (Electrical Review) 93 (4) 81–85 (2017), doi: 10.15199/48.2017.04.21 [in Polish].
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Uwagi

PL

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).