Prediction of the road pavement condition index using stochastic models

• Autorzy: Batrakova Angelika G. , Troyanovsky Vladimir V. , Batrakov Dmitry O. , Pilicheva Maryna O. , Skrypnyk Nataliia S.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.7409/rabdim.020.015

Warianty tytułu

PL

Prognozowanie wskaźnika stanu nawierzchni drogowych z zastosowaniem modeli stochastycznych

• Języki publikacji: PL EN

Abstrakty

PL

W artykule omówiono modele matematyczne prognozowania stanu sieci drogowej z zastosowaniem tzw. łańcuchów Markowa. Dane do obliczeń elementów macierzy przejścia pomiędzy stanami są uzyskiwane na podstawie oceny wizualnej oraz w wyniku pomiarów instrumentalnych. Zalecane jest przygotowanie zestawów danych w postaci tablic systemu zarządzania stanem nawierzchni drogowej sporządzanych na podstawie reprezentatywnej próby odcinków pomiarowych. Macierze przejścia pomiędzy stanami są tworzone w przedziałach czasu o długości jednego roku. W artykule przedstawiono także procedurę tworzenia macierzy przejścia na podstawie częściowo niepełnych zestawów danych, w których wykorzystano informacje o wcześniejszym stanie nawierzchni oraz wyniki pomiarów instrumentalnych, pozwalających na skorygowanie prognozowanych wartości. Uzyskana ostatecznie macierz uwzględnia nie tylko prawdopodobieństwo, lecz również prędkość przejścia pomiędzy stanami. Ponadto możliwe jest także przetwarzanie danych wejściowych z odpowiednich baz lub ich wykorzystanie przy zastosowaniu innego oprogramowania.

EN

Mathematical models for prediction of road network condition based on the so-called Markov chains are presented in this article. The data for calculation of elements of the transition matrix from one condition to another are taken from visual evaluation as well as from instrumental reading. It is recommended to prepare data sets in the form of pavement management system data tables based on a representative sample of measuring sections. Discrete time intervals – of one year – are used when constructing the model of transition matrices. The procedure of forming Markov transition matrix with partially complete data sets is proposed also in paper. The basis of this procedure is information on the previous condition of the structure and the results of the instrumental evaluation, which enables correction of the predicted values. The final matrix takes into account not only the probability, but also the speed of transition from one condition to another. It is also possible to work with the initial data using appropriate databases or other software.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

łańcuchy Markowa; modele stochastyczne; wskaźnik stanu nawierzchni; PCI

EN

Markov chains; pavement condition index; PCI; stochastic models

• Wydawca: Instytut Badawczy Dróg i Mostów
• Czasopismo: Roads and Bridges - Drogi i Mosty
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: Vol. 19, no. 3
• Strony: 225--242
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 37 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Batrakova Angelika G.

• Kharkiv National Automobile and Highway University, Road-Construction Faculty, Department of Highway Design, Geodesy and Land Management, 25 Yaroslava Mudroho St., Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61002

autor

Troyanovsky Vladimir V.

• Kharkiv National Automobile and Highway University, Road-Construction Faculty, Department of Highway Design, Geodesy and Land Management, 25 Yaroslava Mudroho St., Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61002

autor

Batrakov Dmitry O.

• V. Karazin National University, Radiophysics Biomedical Electronics and Computer Systems Faculty, Department of Theoretical Radiophysics, 4 Svobody Sq., Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61022

autor

Pilicheva Maryna O.

• O.M. Beketov National University of Urban Economy in Kharkiv, Department of Land Administration and Geoinformation Systems, 17 Marshal Bazhanov St., Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61002

autor

Skrypnyk Nataliia S.

• Kharkiv National Automobile and Highway University, Department of Foreign Languages, Kharkiv, Ukraine

Bibliografia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2021).