Forecasting greenhouse gas emissions of the Slovak Republic based on grey models

• Autorzy: Vojteková Mária , Blažeková Oľga , Pavlicko Michal

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.37190/epe220108

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has become a necessity and not an option to sustain the environment in both human and natural systems. The Slovak Republic (SR), like the European Union (EU), aims to become greenhouse gas neutral by 2050. To reach this ambitious target, emissions will need to fall by 55% compared to those in the base year 1990. Therefore, forecasting GHG emission amounts is important. The grey model is one of the widespread mathematical forecasting methods. There exist studies that have used some types of grey models to predict GHG but not in the case of the Slovak Republic. We have optimized the length of the input sequence in the rolling mechanism to enhance the forecast accuracy of a new grey model combining the Bernoulli equation with the rolling mechanism. Standard grey model, nonlinear grey Bernoulli model, and grey model with rolling mechanism were used to prove the validity of our optimization and to compare prediction performance among grey models. The novel model was also used for a long-term forecast of GHG emissions in the SR for the years from 2020 to 2040 and compared with officially reported projections. Calculated values showed that the SR is on a good way to reach set targets towards climate change mitigation.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

GHG; greenhouse gas; Slovak Republic; mathematical model; greyscale

PL

GHG; gaz cieplarniany; Słowacja; model matematyczny; skala szarości

• Wydawca: Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
• Czasopismo: Environment Protection Engineering
• Rocznik: 2022
• Tom: Vol. 48, nr 1
• Strony: 117--134
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 25 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Vojteková Mária

• University of Žilina, Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and Communications, Department of Quantitative Methods and Economic Informatics, Univerzitná 1, 01026 Žilina, Slovakia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9040-0443

autor

Blažeková Oľga

• University of Žilina, Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and Communications, Department of Quantitative Methods and Economic Informatics, Univerzitná 1, 01026 Žilina, Slovakia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2394-2351

autor

Pavlicko Michal

• University of Žilina, Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and Communications, Department of Quantitative Methods and Economic Informatics, Univerzitná 1, 01026 Žilina, Slovakia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7311-9625

Bibliografia

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