Modelling the spread of AIDS among intravenous drug users including variable infectivity, HIV testing and needle exchange

• Autorzy: Greenhalgh D. , Lewis F.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In this article we discuss models of the spread of HIV among intravenous drug users where each infectious user progresses through three distinct phases of HIV infectivity prior to developing AIDS, and where each member of the population is randomly tested for the presence of HIV. We first begin with a brief review and literature survey before outlining the particular problems of modelling the spread of HIV through needle sharing. We then state two models, one which represents a lower bound on the spread of disease and a second an upper bound. We briefly discuss the motivation behind these models before stating an expression for the basic reproductive number. Next we examine the impact of HIV testing in our models using a range of different relative infectivity assumptions. We find that for HIV testing to be an effective control strategy then drug users must be tested regularly for HIV and also substantially reduce the rate at which they share needles once aware of being infected.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

HIV; AIDS; intravenous drug users; HIV testing; variable infectivity needle exchange

PL

osoby zażywające narkotyki dożylnie; test na HIV; wymiana igły; zakażenie

• Wydawca: University of Silesia, Institute of Informatics, Computer Systems Department
• Czasopismo: Journal of Medical Informatics & Technologies
• Rocznik: 2001
• Tom: Vol. 2, Part. 1
• Strony: IP3--IP11
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 13 poz., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Greenhalgh D.

• Department of Statistics and Modelling Science, University of Strathclyde, Livingstone Tower, 26 Richmond Street, Glasgow G1 1XH, U.K.

autor

Lewis F.

• Forth Valley Health Board, 33 Spittal Street, Stirling, FK8 1DX, U.K.

Bibliografia

• [1] GREENHALGH, D. and LEWIS, F., Three stage AIDS incubation period: a best case scenario using addict-needle interaction assumptions, IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology, No. 17, pp.95-118, 2000.
• [2] HYMAN, J. M., LI, J. and STANLEY, E. A., The differential infectivity and staged progression models for the transmission of HIV, Mathematical Biosciences Vol. 155, pp.77-109, 1999.
• [3] JACQUEZ, J. A., KOOPMAN, J. S., SIMON, C. P. and LONGINI Jr., I. M., Role of the primary infection in epidemics of HIV infection in gay cohorts, Journal of AIDS, Vol. 7, pp.1169-1184, 1994.
• [4] KAPLAN, E. H., Probability models of needle exchange. Operations Research, Vol. 43, pp.558-568, 1995.
• [5] KAPLAN, E. H., Needles that kill: Modeling human immunodeficiency virus transmission via shared drug injection equipment in shooting galleries. Reviews of Infectious Diseases, Vol. 11, pp.289-298, 1989.
• [6] KAPLAN, E. H. and O'KEEFE, E., Let the needles do the talking! Evaluating the New Haven needle exchange. Interfaces, Vol. 23, pp.7-26, 1993.
• [7] KOOPMAN, J. S., JACQUEZ, J.A., WELCH, G.W., SIMON, C.P., FOXMAN, B., POLLOCK, S.M., BRATH-JONES, D., ADAMS, A.L. and LANGE, K. The role of early HIV infection in the spread of HIV through populations, Journal of AIDS. Vol. 14, pp.249-258, 1994.
• [8] LEWIS, F., Assessing the impact of variable infectivity on the spread of HIV among intravenous drug users, PhD Thesis, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, U.K., 2000.
• [9] LEWIS, F. and GREENHALGH, D., Three stage AIDS incubation period: a worst case scenario using addict-needle interaction assumptions, Mathematical Biosciences, Vol.169, pp.53-87, 2001.
• [10] LEWIS, F. and GREENHALGH, D., HIV testing as an effective control strategy against the spread of AIDS among intravenous drug users, Archives of Control Sciences, Vol. 9, No. 1-2, pp.69-96, 1999.
• [11] PETERSON, D., WILLARD, K., ALTMANN, M., GATEWOOD, L. and DAVIDSON, G. Monte-Carlo simulation of HIV infection in an intravenous drug user community, Journal of AIDS, Vol. 3, pp.1086-1095, 1990.
• [12] SEITZ, S. T., and MUELLER, G. E., Viral load and sexual risk. Epidemiological and policy implications for HIV/AIDS, in KAPLAN, E. H. and BRANDEAU, M. L. (Eds), Modeling the AIDS Epidemic: Planning, Policy and Prediction, Raven Press, New York, pp.461-480, 1994.
• [13] TAN, W. Y., and TANG, S. C., A stochastic model of the spread of HIV epidemic involving both sexual contact and IV drug use, Mathematical and Computer Modelling, Vol. 17, pp.31-57, 1993.