Reflections on commercial air transport safety in the jet era

• Autorzy: Kauffman C.
• Konferencja: Proceedings of the Fourth Seminar on Recent Research and Design Progress in Aeronautical Engineering and its Influence on Education/seminar(IV; 30.11-02.12.2000; Warszawa, Polska)
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The commercial air transport industry is growing with the current approximately 14,000 aircraft expected to double in number by 2018. Unless the current basic accident rate (0.2 per 100,000 hours) is decreased it is anticipated that there will be a major air disaster with this large number of planes approximately every two weeks, a clearly unacceptable situation. If accidents are examined beginning with the decade of the 1960's through the present, certain common causes may be identified and the corrective measures implemented in order to address the problem. Midair collisions occurred but TCAS was introduced with great success. However, the collision problem is feared now to have shifted to the ground - on the runways, taxiways, and aprons, and they are now called incursions. This is one of the NTSB's most wanted solutions for a problem. Ground control radar must be widely introduced and employed to prevent these on-the-ground collisions. Windshear and microbursts caused many aircraft to impact the ground, but doppler radar, the proper observation of airspeed, and appropriate aircraft maneuvering have caused a decrease in this type of accident. Controlled flight into the terrain has been the cause of the largest number of disasters. However, the introduction of GPWS and its enhanced version has had a significant effect in decreasing the numbers of these types of accidents. Aircraft icing led to the smallest number of crashes, but it seems to be a problem which continues even though there is general awareness of its adverse potential. It too remains on the NTSB's most wanted list. For all of these causes of aviation disasters, the problem was identified, and with the exception of incursions and icing, solutions or remedies with very good effects have been found. However, a new class of causes for accidents which are much more insidious have been appearing within the last decade or two. Accidents are seemingly becoming more complex and/or more unanticipated due to the appearance of the "unk unks" or unknown unknowns. While it has always been known that fuel tanks often contained explosive vapors (-30% of the time), it was considered possible to eliminate all ignition sources. After over a dozen accidents involving both civilian and military aircraft a study is being made relating to fuel tank inerting - the last item on the NTSB aircraft safety wish list. There have been other disasters which have resulted from aircraft age (aircraft currently in service may be well over 20 years old). Additional accidents have resulted from aircraft design defects which remained undetected for many years. Onboard fires usually produce disastrous effects and may begin in unanticipated ways. Information which is displayed to the crew may be misleading or be misinterpreted, thus causing a crash. Intentional, inappropriate crew had behavior which has almost been dismissed out-of-hand has been implicated in five recent catastrophes. With these latter classes of accidents, it may be asked what technological fixes may be made. It may not be so simple. Solutions may be generated if the financial penalties which must be paid as a consequence of aviation disasters are significant. Currently, worldwide, the aviation industry pays $1.3 billion in insurance premiums. With proper investment perhaps this might be increased to $1.68 billion. Recently, to a survivor of the American Airlines, Little Rock, Arkansas landing accident, $11 million was paid. Hence, about 118 such awards could be made each year. On the average there are about 1000 fatalities each year. In such a situation the insurance rates must increase, the number of accidents will need to decrease, or an artificial limit must be imposed onto the financial compensation awards (tort reform?). While statistically air travel is safer than other choices, when disasters do occur they are totally destructive and abhorrent, A renewed effort must be made to futher reduce the accident rates by identifying and controlling the remaining difficult factors.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

commercial air transport; transport safety; aviation safety network

PL

przemysłowy transport powietrzny; bezpieczeństwo transportu; bezpieczeństwo sieci lotniczej

• Wydawca: Institute of Aeronautics and Applied Mechanics, Warsaw University of Technology
• Czasopismo: Research Bulletin / Warsaw University of Technology, Institute of Aeronautics and Applied Mechanics
• Rocznik: 2000
• Tom: nr 10
• Strony: 15--32
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 5 poz., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Kauffman C.

• Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MI 48109-2140, USA,