Monitoring and stochastic modelling of tectonic movements in the Simitli Graben, SW Bulgaria

• Autorzy: Tsenko T. , Dobrev N.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Clarifying the mechanism of some risky geodynamical processes could be performed using monitoring on the especially chosen sites. The obtained information is useful for studying and predicting of fault and landslide movements. For this purpose, three extensometers, type TM-71, Czech product, had been installed in 1982 at the southern parts of Simitii graben, SW Bulgaria. In the present paper, we present the results obtained by a long-term in-situ monitoring within the period 1984-2000. A stochastic modeling of the results of measurements to clarify some relationships in the behaviour of tectonic movements is applied. During the modeling, it was proposed some competitive programs - ARIMA and TRAMO/SEATS for models of temporary rows. Tendencies in the development of studied processes are established. Correlations between the tectonic movements and the temperature fluctuations are established, too. The adequateness of the models and the effectiveness of the prognoses were made using diagnostic verification of the statistical tests. The experimental investigations were performed using DEMETRA program.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

stochastic modelling; monitoring; tectonic movements; seasonal adjustment; regression models with ARIMA noise

PL

modelowanie stochastyczne; monitorowanie; ruchy tektoniczne; sezonowa regulacja

• Wydawca: Wydział Geodezji i Kartografii Politechniki Warszawskiej
• Czasopismo: Reports on Geodesy
• Rocznik: 2004
• Tom: nr 1/68
• Strony: 35--43
• Opis fizyczny: BIbliogr. 13 poz., rys., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Tsenko T.

• Central Laboratory of Geodesy-BAS, Sofia

autor

Dobrev N.

• Geological Institute-BAS, Sofia

Bibliografia

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