Occurrence probability of maximum sea levels in Polish ports of Baltic Sea coast

• Autorzy: Wiśniewski B. , Wolski T.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In this work long-term probability of occurrence of maximum sea levels in some points of Polish Baltic Sea coast, was determined. Use was made of multi-year series of measurement data on maximum yearly sea levels, and their probability distributions were determined. To the analysis Gumbel’s distribution and Pearson distribution of 3rd type as well as quantile methods and the highest credibility method, were applied. Kolmogorov test was used to examine conformity of the theoretical distributions with real random variable distribution. As results from the analysis, the highest sea levels of 1000- year return period can be expected in Polish ports of the west part of the coast , i.e. Kolobrzeg (750, 2 cm , i.e. 2,5 m above the average sea level) and Swinoujscie (723,6 cm) . Lower sea levels of the same return period can be expected in Ustka (720,2 cm), Wladyslawowo (709,7 cm) and Gdansk (716, 7 cm), respectively.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

sea levels; probability; Polish Baltic Sea coast

• Wydawca: Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Ocean Engineering & Ship Technology
• Czasopismo: Polish Maritime Research
• Rocznik: 2009
• Tom: nr 3
• Strony: 62--69
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 14 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Wiśniewski B.

autor

Wolski T.

• University of Szczecin Wąska 13 71-415 Szczecin, POLAND e-mail: [e-mail],

Bibliografia

• 1. Byczkowski A.: Hydrology (in Polish), Vol. I and II, Publishing House of Warsaw Agriculture University (Wydawnictwo SGGW), Warszawa 1996
• 2. Gumbel, E.J.: Statistics of Extremes. Columbia University Press 1958
• 3. Jednoral T., Sztobryn M., Milkowska M.: Application of position statistics for prediction of extreme levels of Baltic Sea in Polish coastal zone (in Polish), Inżynieria Morska i Geotechnika, no.5/ 2008
• 4. Kaczmarek Z.: Effectiveness of estimation of maximum flow rates of a given return period (in Polish), Archiwum Hydrotechniki, vol. 4, no. 3/1957
• 5. Kaczmarek Z., Trykozko E.: Application of the method of quantiles to estimation of the Pearson distribution. Acta Geophysica Polonica, vol. 12, no. 1/1964
• 6. Kaczmarek Z.: Meteorolgical and statistical methods in hydrology and meteorology (in Polish). Transport and Telecommunication Publishers (Wyd. Komunikacji i Lącznosci), Warszawa 1970
• 7. Massel S. (ed.): Handbook on hydro-engineering. Marine environmental loads on hydro-engineering buildings (in Polish). Maritime Publishing House (Wyd. Morskie), Gdansk 1992
• 8. Ozga-Zielinska M., Brzezinski J.: Applied hydrology (in Polish). Scientific Publishing House (Wyd. PWN), Warszawa 1997
• 9. Weglarczyk S.: Statistical methods (in Polish). Printed series of course lectures for students of Krakow University of Technology, Krakow 1993
• 10. Wroblewski A.: Occurrence of minimum yearly water states in South Baltic Sea (Based on observation results in Nowy Port of Gdansk in 1886÷1939 and 1946÷1966) (in Polish), Przegląd Geofizyczny, vol. XV, no. 1/1970
• 11. Wroblewski A.: Occurrence probability of maximum yearly levels of Baltic Sea in Gdansk Nowy Port, Kolobrzeg and Swinoujscie (in Polish). Oceanology, no. 6/1975
• 12. Wroblewski A.: Occurrence probability of minimum yearly levels of Baltic Sea in Gdansk Nowy Port, Kolobrzeg and Swinoujscie (in Polish). Archiwum Hydrotechniki, vol. 29, no. 4/1982
• 13. Wroblewski A.: Analysis and forecast of long-term sea level changes along the Polish Baltic Sea coast, Part I. Annual sea level maxima, Oceanologia, 33, 1992
• 14. Wroblewski A.: Long-term prediction of sea level rise (in Polish). Inżynieria Morska i Geotechnika, no.3/2001