Probabilistic approach to lifetime assessment of steam turbines

• Autorzy: Banaszkiewicz M. , Gerdes R.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper presents a probabilistic method of computational estimation of steam turbine life. The need for the use of probabilistic analysis results from the inherent uncertainty in estimating lifetime expenditure due to creep and thermal fatigue. As a starting point for analysis, a deterministic method of lifetime consumption calculation of steam turbines critical components was presented, and main sources of uncertainty present in this approach were discussed. Then, a mathematical model proposed for probabilistic calculations was described in detail. As an example of probabilistic approach, an analysis of failure probability of a 200 MW steam turbine HP stop valve resulting from the scatter of material data was given. Numerical simulations were performed using a computer code developed by ALSTOM Power.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

steam turbines; Steam turbines lifetime; probabilistic analysis

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo Instytutu Maszyn Przepływowych PAN
• Czasopismo: Transactions of the Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery
• Rocznik: 2003
• Tom: nr 113
• Strony: 95--106
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 8 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Banaszkiewicz M.

• ALSTOM Power Sp. z o.o., 82-300 Elbląg

autor

Gerdes R.

• ALSTOM Power Ltd, CH 5400 Baden, Switzerland

Bibliografia

• 1 Mazur-Buyko k.: Computational methods of lifetime evaluation of steam turbine casings and rotors, I Scientific-Technical Session on Lifetime of steam turbine components and methods of its prediction, EIbIąg, 42+53, 1986 (in Polish).
• 2 Viswanathan R., Jaffee R. I., McCloskey T.: Metallurgical factors affecting the reliability of fossil steam turbine rotors, [in:] Life Assessment and, Improuement of Turbo-Generator Rotors for Fossil Plants, Pergamon Press 1-6+ 1-49, 1985.
• 3 Short J. S.: Probabilistic approaches to life assessment, [in:] Life Assessment nd Improvement of Turbo-Generator Rotors for Fossi,l Plants, Pergamon Press, 1985, 5-3 + 5-26,
• 4 Lifetime Assessment Instruction, ALSTOM Power, Baden.
• 5 Hernas A.: Creep Resistance of Steels anil Alloys, Silesian Tech. Univ. Pubtr.,Gliwice 2000 (in Polish).
• 6 Rusin A., Daciuk Ł.: Evaluation of dangerous stress appearane probability in stop valve of 13K215 steam turbine, Sci. Papers of Silesian Tech. Univ.series Power Engineering,130, 101+116, 1998 (in Polish).
• 7. Gerdes R.: Engineering Approach for Estimation of Failure Probabilities for Turbine Components, Technical Report HTGE 53064, ABB, Baden 1999.
• 8. Gerstenkorn T,, Śródka T.: Combinatorics and Probability Calculus PWN, Warszawa 1980 (in Polish).