Szacowanie oraz kontrola kosztów i ryzyka w projektach tunelowych i infrastrukturalnych

• Autorzy: Reilly J.

Warianty tytułu

EN

Management/control of cost and risk for tunneling and infrastructure projects

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

PL

Niniejsza praca prezentuje niedawno opracowaną metodę zarządzania, szacowania kosztów i ryzyka strat przy złożonych projektach infrastrukturalnych. Opisana jest w niej metodologia lepszego szacowania kosztów tego typu projektów, opracowana przez autora i uzupełniona przez Departament Transportu Stanu Waszyngton.

EN

This paper presents a recently-developed risk-based method for the estimation and management of cost for complex, infrastructure projects. Chronic problems in estimating realistic cost estimates for complex infrastructure and tunneling projects are referenced. A methodology to better estimate the cost of such projects, developed by the author and others, and implemented by the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), is described. The procedure, called the Cost Estimate Validation Process, or CEVP TM, uses risk and uncertainty methods to structure a project cost estimate to produce a "range of probable cost". The concept incorporates principles similar to those which have been applied to several specialized tunneling projects using risk analysis processes. The procedure has been applied to a set of infrastructure projects in Washington State (USA), estimated at about US $25 billion, and to many smaller projects. The process includes explicit dentification of high-cost and schedule risk drivers - leading to an ability to develop explicit risk management plans early in a project's development, directly from the CEVP TM process. Initial results are favorable, with the first public tender falling within the estimated "range of probable cost".

Słowa kluczowe

PL

tunel; szacowanie kosztów; szacowanie ryzyka; zarządzanie kosztami; infrastruktura

EN

infrastructure; tunnel; estimating costs; estimating risks; tunneling; control of cost; control of risk; management costs; infrastructural projects

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo INŻYNIERIA Spółka z o.o.
• Czasopismo: Geoinżynieria : drogi, mosty, tunele
• Rocznik: 2005
• Tom: nr 4
• Strony: 52--56
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 28 poz., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Reilly J.

• John Reilly Associates International, Ltd

Bibliografia

• [1] Anderson, J., Reilly, J.J., Isaksson, T., 1999 “Risk Mitigation for tunnel projects - a structured approach” Proc World Tunnel Congress '99 / ITA Conference, Oslo, May, pp703-712.
• [2] Arup, 2000, “Jubilee Line Extension, End-of-Commission Report, Secretary of State’s Agent” UK.
• [3] Brown, J., 2002 - Implementation Guidelines, WSDOT’s CEVP™ process. With consultants Golder Associates - Dwight Sangrey, Bill Roberds & Travis McGrath (risk), Parsons Corporation - Keith Sabol (cost), KJM Associates - Art Jones (estimating), Keith Molenaar, LIniv. of Colorado (process & documentation).
• [4] Einstein, H.II. & Vick, S.G. 1974, ‘Geological model for a tunnel cost model’ RETC Proc. p1701.
• [5] Flyvbjerg, B.; Holm, M.S., Buhl, S.; 2002 ‘Underestimating Costs in Public Works, Error or Lie? American Planning Association Journal, Vol. 68, No. 3, Summer.
• [6] Flyvbjerg, B.; Bruzelius, N. & Rothengatter, W. 2003 'Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition’ Cambridge University Press, March, 208 pages. ISBN: 0815701284.
• [7] Grasso, P., Mahtab, M., Kalamaras, G. & Einstein, H.H. 2002, ‘On the Development of a Risk Management Plan for Tunnelling’, Proc. AITES-ITA Downunder 2002, World Tunnel Congress, Sydney, March.
• [8] Isaksson, T. 1998, Tunnelling in poor ground - choice of shield method based on reliability Proc XI Danube - European Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering: pp527-534 (Balkema, Rotterdam).
• [9] Isaksson, T., Anderson, J., Reilly, J. J., 1999 “Mit innovativer projektsteuerung und riskoanalyse kostenbewuβt bauen” Proc STUVA Conference, Frankfurt, Novemeber.
• [10] Isaksson, T., 2002, 'Model for estimation of time and cost, based on risk evaluation applied to tunnel projects’, Doctoral Thesis, Div. Soil and Rock Mechanics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm.
• [11] ITA 1992, ‘Recommendations on the contractual sharing of risks’ (2nd edition), International Tunnelling Association, published by the Norwegian Tunnelling Society.
• [12] Jubilee Line 1993, Summary Project Report with section on risk projections, London, October.
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• [14] MacDonald, D., Mullen, L. & Brown, J. 2002, 2003 Press Release and Briefing Documents — CEVP Process and Results’, Washington State Department of Transportation, Press and Public Briefing June 3 (2002) and July 16 (2003)- Available at: www.wsdot.wa.gov/projects/cevp/default.htm
• [15] Reason, J., 1990, ‘Human Error’, Cambridge University Press.
• [16] Reilly, J.J., 1999 “Policy, Innovation, Management and Risk Mitigation for Complex, Urban Underground Infrastrucure Projects” ASCE New York, Metropolitan Section, Spring geotechnical Seminar, May.
• [17] Reilly, J.J. & Thompson, R., 2001 ‘International survey, 1400 projects', internal report.
• [18] Reilly, J.J., 2002 'Managing the Costs of Complex, Underground and Infrastructure Projects’, American Underground Construction Conference, Regional Conference, Seattle, March.
• [19] Reilly, J.J, McBride, M„ Dye, D. & Mansfield, C. 2002 Guideline Procedure. ‘Cost Estimate Validation Process (CEVP™)’ Washington State Department of Transportation, January.
• [20] Reilly, J.J, 2003a “Estimating and Managing the Costs of Complex Infrastructure Projects”, Transportation Research Board Conference, Special Panel on the costs of Mega-Projects, Washington D.C., January.
• [21] Reilly, J.J. 2003b, Web-page News article “New Cost Estimate Validation Process - CEVP" www.JohnReillyAssociates.com
• [22] Reilly, J. J. 2003c, “Towards Reliable Cost Estimates”, Tunnels & Tunneling, North American Edition, September, Viewpoint Article, p4.
• [23] Roberds, W. J., 1996 "Worth the Risk?” ASCE Journal, April 1996.
• [24] Sangrey, D., Reilly, J.J. N MacDonald, D. 2002 Porum on Washington State Mega-Projects’ Washington State Department of Transportation, Sponsored by the TRUE Collaborative.
• [25] Salvucci, E.P. 2003 “The ‘Big Dig’ of Boston, Massachusetts: Lessons to Learn”, T&T North America, May.
• [26] TRUE 2003, Transportation Risk and Uncertainty Evaluation Collaborative (www.true-cevp.com).
• [27] Tunnels and Tunneling, North American Edition, May 2003 (p3).
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