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Tytuł artykułu

Inter-annual oscillations of Baltic water volumes and sea levels

Autorzy
Identyfikatory
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
In spite of the existence of recent long-term sea level measurement series, these have not been applied to compute the long-term characteristics of Baltic water volume changes. To deal with the problem, the mean annual volume changes in the Baltic basin were computed for the measurement period 1896-1986 on the basis of mean monthly sea levels at six tide gauges. EOFs were applied to obtain the averaged sea level characteristics for the entire basin. The results were compared with those of calculations based on the readings of the Stockholm tide gauge, regarded as representative of the whole Baltic, and on geodetic measurements. The differences were found to be minimal. Following computation of the mean annual water volumes, the time series obtained was subjected to a Finite Fourier Transform. The resulting amplitude spectrum was worked up with the bootstrap technique at the 5% significance level, yielding oscillations with periods of 5.6, 4.5 and 3.6 years and corresponding volume change amplitudes of 7.9, 8.7 and 8.7 km3. The fundamental statistical characteristics of the Baltic water volume changes were determined together with the application of stochastic parametric processes. A forcing study of the long-term water volume oscillations in the Baltic is included.
Słowa kluczowe
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Strony
183--203
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 32 poz., tab., wykr.
Twórcy
  • Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Powstańców Warszawy 55, 81-712 Sopot, Poland, wroblew@iopan.gda.pl
Bibliografia
  • 1. Bergström S., Carlsson B., 1993, Hydrology of the Baltic Basin. Inflow of fresh water from rivers and land for the period 1950–1990, SMHI, Rep. Hydrol., 7, 21 pp.
  • 2. Box G. E. P., Jenkins G. M., 1976, Time series analysis forecasting and control, Holden-Day Publ., San Francisco, 575 pp.
  • 3. Currie R. G., 1981, Amplitude and phase of the 11-yr term in sea level: Europe, Geophys. J. Res. Astr. Soc., 67, 547-556.
  • 4. Currie R. G., 1976, The spectrum of the sea level from 4 to 40 years, Geophys. J. Res. Astr. Soc., 46, 513-520.
  • 5. Cyberski J., 1995, Recently observed and prognostic changes in water balance and their impact on the salinity in the Baltic Sea, Uniw. Gdańsk, Gdańsk, 210 pp., (in Polish).
  • 6. Druet C., 1994, The dynamics of a stratified ocean, PWN, Warszawa, 224 pp., (in Polish).
  • 7. Efron B., 1981, Nonparametric standard errors and confidence intervals, Can. J. Statist., 9, 139-172.
  • 8. Efron B., Gong G., 1983, A leisurely look at the bootstrap, the jackknife and cross-validation, Am. Statist., 37, 36-48.
  • 9. Ehlin U., Mattisson I., 1976, Volumes and areas of the Baltic Sea and its subbasins, Water in the North, IHP-News, 9 (1), 16-20, (in Swedish).
  • 10. Ekman M., Stigebrandt A., 1990, Secular change of the seasonal variation in
  • 11. sea level and of the pole tide in the Baltic Sea, J. Geophys. Res., 95 (C4), 5379-5383.
  • 12. Hela I., 1947, A study of the annual fluctuation of the heights of sea level in the Baltic and in the North Sea, Soc. Sci. Fennica, Comment. Phys. Math., XIII (14), 1-51.
  • 13. Heyen H., Zorita E., Storch H., 1996, Statistical downscaling of monthly mean North Atlantic air-pressure to sea level anomalies in the Baltic Sea, Tellus, 48 A), 312-323.
  • 14. Jankowski A., 1998, Simulation of water circulation in the Baltic Sea for selected months from April to November, Rozpr. i monogr., 8, Inst. Oceanol. PAN, Sopot, 165 pp., (in Polish).
  • 15. Kowalik Z., Wróblewski A., 1973, Long-term oscillations of annual mean sea level in the Baltic on the basis of observations carried out in Świnoujście from 1811 to 1970, Acta Geoph. Pol., XXI, 1, 3-10.
  • 16. Lazarenko N. I., 1965, Variations in Baltic Sea levels, Tr. Gosudarst. Okeanogr. Inst., 65, 39-127, (in Russian).
  • 17. Lazarenko N. I., 1986, Variations of mean sea level and water volume of the Baltic Sea, [in:] Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission – Helsinki Commision, Baltic Sea Environm. Proc., 16, Helsinki, 64-79.
  • 18. Lisitzin E., 1953, Variation of sea level in the Baltic, Int. Hydrogr. Rev., XXX (1), 131-134.
  • 19. Omstedt A., 1987, Water cooling in the entrance of the Baltic Sea, Tellus, 39 (A), 254-265.
  • 20. Omstedt A., Meuller L., Nyberg L., 1997, Interannual, seasonal and regional variations of precipitation and evaporation over the Baltic Sea, Ambio, 26 (8), 484-492.
  • 21. Privalsky V. E., 1988, Stochastic models and spectra of interannual variability of mean annual sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, Dynam. Atmosph. and Oceans, 12, 1-18.
  • 22. Samuelsson M., Stigebrandt A., 1996, Main characteristics of the long-term sea level variability in the Baltic Sea, Tellus, 48 (A), 672-683.
  • 23. Sayin E., Krauss W., 1996, A numerical study of the water exchange through the Danish Straits, Tellus, 48 (A), 324-341.
  • 24. Snedecor G. W., Cochran W. M., 1967, Statistical methods, Iowa St. Univ. Press, Ames, 552 pp.
  • 25. Spencer N. E., Woodworth P. L., 1993, Data holdings of the permanent service for mean sea level (November, 1993), Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, Birkenhead, 81 pp.
  • 26. Stigebrandt A., 1980, Barotropic and baroclinic response of a semi-enclosed basin to barotropic forcings from the sea, [in:] Fjord oceanography, H. J. Freeland, D. M. Farmer and C. D. Levings (eds.), Plenum, New York, 141-164.
  • 27. Strub P. T., Allen J. S., Huyer A., Smith R. L., 1987, Seasonal cycles of currents, temperature, winds, and sea level over the Northeast Pacific Continental Shelf: 35◦N to 48◦N, J. Geophys. Res., 92 (C2), 1507-1526.
  • 28. Tsimplis M. N., Woodworth P. L., 1994, The global distribution of the seasonal sea level cycle calculated from coastal tide gauge data, J. Geophys. Res., 99 (C8), 16031-16039.
  • 29. Vermeer M., Kakkuri J., Mlkki P., Boman H., Kahma K. K., Leppranta M., 1988, Land uplift and sea level variability spectrum using fully measured monthly means of tide gauge readings, Finnish Mar. Res., 256, 3-75.
  • 30. Willmott C. J., Acleson S. G., Davis R. E., Feddema J. J., Klink K. M., Legates D. R., O’Donnell J., Rowe C. M., 1985, Statistics for the evaluation and comparison of models, J. Geophys. Res., 90 (C5), 8995-9005.
  • 31. Wiśniewski B., 1978, Seasonal and interannual oscillations of the Baltic Sea level, Wyż. Szk. Mor., Szczecin, 91 pp., (in Polish).
  • 32. Wróblewski A., 1992, The application of EOF in determining basin mean sea level using computations for the Baltic as an example, [in:] Sea level changes: determination and effects, Am. Geophys. Union and IUGG, Washington DC, 23-28.
  • 33. Wróblewski A., 1998, The effect of the North Sea on oscillations of the mean monthly sea levels in the Baltic Sea, Cont. Shelf Res., 18, 501-514.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-article-BUS8-0015-0050
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