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Abstrakty
Long-term trends in the variations of physical and chemical parameters characterising seawater were analysed by a method, originally used in climatology, allowing detection of optimal cycles of these variations in incomplete (intermittent) data time series. The method was used to analyse measurements of water temperature, salinity, density, oxygen saturation and nutrient concentrations (phosphate, nitrate and silicate) from station BMP L1 (P1) in the Gdansk Deep region obtained between 1979 and 1996. All parameters revealed a pattern of regular cycles, the spectrum of the cycles being dependent on the parameters and water layer. As regards reconstruction and forecasting in the deterministic-stochastic model, statistically significant correlation coefficients in the 0.57-0.97 range were obtained between the calculated and empirical data for all the parameters examined. The correlation was poorest in the case of silicate. Linear regression trends calculated in the deterministic-stochastic model were in relatively good agreement with those obtained using Hirsch's non-parametric test.
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
553--572
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 14 poz., tab., wykr.
Twórcy
autor
autor
- Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Maritime Branch, al. Waszyngtona 42, 81-342 Gdynia, Poland, elap@stratus.imgw.gdynia.pl
Bibliografia
- 1. Boryczka J., 1984, A deterministic-stochastic model of multiperiodic climate changes, Rozpr. Uniw. Warsz., Wyd. Uniw. Warsz., Warszawa, 265 pp., (in Polish).
- 2. Boryczka J., 1981, A new method of determining the trend in the fields of meteorological variables, Prz. Geofiz., 3–4, 265-282, (in Polish).
- 3. Boryczka J., 1993, Natural and anthropogenic changes in the Earth’s climate from the 17th to the 21st centuries, Rozpr. Uniw. Warsz., Wyd. Uniw. Warsz., Warszawa, 400 pp., (in Polish).
- 4. Cyberski J., 1995, Recently observed and forecast changes in the water balance and their impact on the salinity in the Baltic Sea, Rozpr. Uniw. Gdańsk, Wyd. Uniw. Gdańsk, Gdańsk, 210 pp., (in Polish).
- 5. Doerffel K., 1989, Statistik in der analytischen Chemie, Wyd. Nauk.-Tech., Warszawa, 220 pp., (Polish translation – originally in German).
- 6. Gutry-Korycka M., Boryczka J., 1990, Long-term fluctuations of water balance elements in Poland and in the Baltic Sea drainage area, Prz. Geofiz., 3–4, 175-188, (in Polish).
- 7. HELCOM, 1988, Guideliness for the Baltic Monitoring Programme for the Third Stage, Baltic Sea Environm. Proc., 27, 161 pp.
- 8. HELCOM, 1997, Third periodic assessment of the state of the marine environment of the Baltic Sea, 1989–1993; Background document, Baltic Sea Environm. Proc., 64 (B), 252 pp.
- 9. Helsel D. R., Hirsch R. M., 1992, Trend analysis [in:] Statistical methods in water resources, Stud. Environm. Sci., 49, Elsevier, Amsterdam–London–New York–Tokyo, 323-352.
- 10. IMGW – data base; meteorological, oceanographic and riverine pollution load.
- 11. Kullenberg G., 1981, Physical oceanography, [in:] The Baltic Sea, A. Voipio (ed.), Elsevier Oceanogr. Ser., Amsterdam–Oxford–New York, 135-181.
- 12. Łysiak-Pastuszak E., Drgas N., Ciszewska I., Niemkiewicz E., Environmental observations in the Gulf of Gdańsk and the Pomeranian Bay following the summer flood of 1997, 1998, Dt. Hydrogr. Z., 50 (2/3), 109-126.
- 13. Oktaba W., 1980, Elements of mathematical statistics and experimentation methodology, PWN, Warszawa, 310 pp., (in Polish).
- 14. Sandén P., 1994, Program WHIRSCH.EXE, HELCOM EC BETA Statistics and Data Treatment Group.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-article-BUS8-0015-0029