Temporal variability of precipitation extremes in Estonia 1961-2008

• Autorzy: Päädam K. , Post P.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Daily precipitation data from 40 stations are used to investigate the temporal variability of precipitation extremes in Estonia. The period covered is 1961-2008, characterized by a uniformity of observational practice. Precipitation extremes are quantified by yearly and seasonal values of two different parameters: day-count indices based on 95th and 99th percentile thresholds. Trend significance was assessed with the Mann-Kendall test. Results show that the frequency of both indices has increased. No significant negative trends were found. An increase of 15.8 events over the 99th percentile per decade was observed for Estonia. The indices selected for this study may be called "soft" climate extremes, but the number of such events is large enough to allow for meaningful trend analysis in a roughly half-century long time series.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

precipitation extremes; temporal variability; Estonia

• Wydawca: Polish Academy of Sciences, Institute of Oceanology ; Elsevier
• Czasopismo: Oceanologia
• Rocznik: 2011
• Tom: No. 53 (1-TI)
• Strony: 245--257
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 27 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Päädam K.

autor

Post P.

• Institute of Physics, University of Tartu, Űlikooli 18, Tartu 50090, Estonia;,

Bibliografia

• 1.Alpert P., Ben-Gai T., Baharad A., Benjamini Y., Yekutieli D., Colacino M., Diodato L., Ramis C., Homar V., Romero R., Michaelides S., Manes A., 2002, The paradoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite of decrease in total values, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29 (11), 1536. doi:10.1029/2001GL013554
• 2.Easterling D.R., Evans J.-L., Groisman P.Y., Karl T.R., Kunkel K., 2000, Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81 (3), 417-425. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0417:OVATIE>2.3.CO;2
• 3.Groisman P.Y., Karl T.R., Easterling D.R., Knight R.W., Jamason P. F., Hennessy K. J., Suppiah R., Page C.M., Wibig J., Fortuniak K., Razuvaev V.N., Douglas A., Forland E., Zhai P., 1999, Changes in the probability of heavy precipitation: Important indicators of climatic change, Climatic Change, 42 (1), 243-283. doi:10.1023/A:1005432803188
• 4.Groisman P.Y., Knight R.W., Easterling D.R., Karl T.R., Hegerl G.C., Razuvaev V.N., 2005, Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record, J. Climate, 18 (9), 1326-1350.doi:10.1175/JCLI3339.1
• 5.Hennessy K. J., Gregory J.M., Mitchell J. F.B., 1997, Changes in daily precipitation under enhanced greenhouse conditions, Clim. Dynam., 13 (9), 667-680. doi:10.1007/s003820050189
• 6.Jaagus J., 2006, Climatic changes in Estonia during the second half of the 20th century in relationship with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 83 (1), 77-88. doi:10.1007/s00704-005-0161-0
• 7.Jaagus J., Briede A., Rimkus E., Remm K., 2010, Precipitation pattern in the Baltic countries under the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation and local landscape factors, Int. J. Climatol., 30 (5), 705-720.
• 8.Karagiannidis A., Karacostas T., Maheras P., Makrogiannis T., 2009, Trends and seasonality of extreme precipitation characteristics related to mid-latitude cyclones in Europe, Adv. Geosci., 20, 39-43.doi:10.5194/adgeo-20-39-2009
• 9.Karl T.R., Knight R.W., 1998, Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79 (2), 231-241. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0231:STOPAF>2.0.CO;2
• 10.Klein Tank A.M.G., Können G. P., 2003, Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946-99, J. Climate, 16 (22), 3665-3680. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3665:TIIODT>2.0.CO;2
• 11.Klein Tank A.M.G., Wijngaard J.B., Können G.P., Böhm R., Demarée G., Gocheva A., Mileta M., Pashiardis S., Hejkrlik L., Kern-Hansen C., Heino R., Bessemoulin P., M¨uller-Westermeier G., TzanakouM., Szalai S., Péalsdóttir T., Fitzgerald D., Rubin S., Capaldo M., Maugeri M., Leitass A., Bukantis A., Aberfeld R., van Engelen A. F.V., Forland E., Mietus M., Coelho F., Mares C., Razuvaev V., Nieplova E., Cegnar T., López J.A., Dahlström B., Moberg A., Kirchhofer W., Ceylan A., Pachaliuk O., Alexander L.V., Petrovic P., 2002, Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment, Int. J. Climatol., 22 (12), 1441-1453. doi:10.1002/joc.773
• 12.Mätlik O., Post P., 2008, Synoptic weather types that have caused heavy precipitation in Estonia in the period 1961-2005, Est. J. Eng., 14 (3), 195-208.
• 13.Merilain M., Post P., 2006, Heavy rainfall - is it only a feature of recent years' summers in Estonia?, Publ. Geophys. Univ. Tartuensis, 50, 144-154.
• 14.Moberg A., Jones P.D., Lister D., Walther A., Brunet M., Jacobeit J., Alexander L.V., Della-Marta P.M., Luterbacher J., Yiou P., Chen D., Klein Tank A.M.G., Saladié O., Sigró J., Aguilar E., Alexandersson H., Almarza C., Auer I., Barriendos M., Begert M., Bergström H., Böhm R., Butler C. J., Caesar J., Drebs A., Founda D., Gerstengarbe F.-W., Micela G., Maugeri M., österle H., Pandzic K., Petrakis M., Srnec L., Tolasz R., Tuomenvirta H., Werner P.C., Linderholm H., Philipp A., Wanner H., Xoplaki E., 2006, Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period 1901-2000, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D22106, doi: 10.1029/2006JD007103. doi:10.1029/2006JD007103
• 15.Nutter F.W., 1999, Global climate change: Why U.S. insurers care, Climatic Change, 42 (1), 45-49. doi:10.1023/A:1005404013666
• 16.Peterson T.C., Folland C., Gruza G., Hogg W., Mokssit A., Plummer N., 2001, Report on the activities of the Working Group on Climate Change Detection and Related Rapporteurs 1998-2001, World Climate Data and Monitoring Progr., Geneva, WMO, 47.
• 17.Rimkus E., Kažys J., Bukantis A., 2010, Recent dynamics and prediction of heavy precipitation events in Lithuania, 6th Study Conf. BALTEX, Poland.
• 18.Salmi T., Määttä A., Anttila P., Ruoho-Airola T., Amnell T., 2002, Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates - the Excel template application MAKESENS, Finnish Meteorol. Inst. Rep., 31.
• 19.Tammets T., 2007, Distribution of extreme wet and dry days in Estonia in last 50 years, Proc. Estonian Acad. Sci. Eng., 13 (3), 252-259.
• 20.Tebaldi C., Hayhoe K., Arblaster J., Meehl G., 2006, Going to the extremes, Climatic Change, 79 (3), 185-211. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4
• 21.Trenberth K.E., Dai A.G., Rasmussen R.M., Parsons D.B., 2003, The changing character of precipitation, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84 (9), 1205-1217. doi:10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205
• 22.Trenberth K.E., Jones P.D., Ambenje P., Bojariu R., Easterling D., Klein Tank A.M.G., Parker D., Rahimzadeh F., Renwick J.A., Rusticucci M., Soden B., Zhai P., 2007, Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change, [in:] Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon, D. Quin, M. Manning, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M.M.B. Tignor, H. L. Miller & Z. Chen, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 236-336.
• 23.Venäläinen A., Jylhä K., Kilpeläinen T., Saku S., Tuomenvirta H., Vajda A., Ruosteenoja K., 2009, Recurrence of heavy precipitation, dry spells and deep snow cover in Finland based on observations, Boreal Environ. Res., 14 (1), 166-172.
• 24.Watterson I.G., 2005, Simulated changes due to global warming in the variability of precipitation, and their interpretation using a gamma-distributed stochastic model, Adv. Water Resour., 28 (12), 1368-1381. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2004.11.016
• 25.Zolina O., Kapala A., Simmer C., Gulev S.K., 2004, Analysis of extreme precipitation over Europe from different reanalyses: a comparative assessment, Global Planet. Change, 44 (1-4), 129-161. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.009
• 26.Zolina O., Simmer C., Kapala A., Bachner S., Gulev S.K., Maechel H., 2008, Seasonally dependent changes of precipitation extremes over Germany since 1950 from a very dense observational network, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06110, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008393. doi:10.1029/2007JD008393
• 27.Zolina O., Simmer C., Kapala A., Gulev S.K., 2005, On the robustness of the estimates of centennial-scale variability in heavy precipitation from station data over Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L14707, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023231. doi:10.1029/2005GL023231