Advances in modeling methodology for supporting environmental policy-making

• Autorzy: Makowski M.

Warianty tytułu

PL

Postępy w metodologii modelowania matematycznego dla wspomagania procesów decyzyjnych dotyczących środowiska naturalnego

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper deals with recent developments in the fields of applied mathematics and operational research triggered by the needs of effective support of environmental policy-making processes that require interdisciplinary science-based advice. Mathematical models developed for this purpose demand new modeling paradigms for an adequate integration of pertinent knowledge, and creation of knowledge needed for rational decision-making. The article first summarizes the model-based support for problem solving from the point of view of actual decision-makers. Next, it discusses the model representation of the knowledge pertinent to a given decision-making problem, and the recently developed modeling technology supporting the whole process of modeling complex problems. The last part deals with novel methods and tools for integrated management of risks related to natural catastrophes. The presented methodology is illustrated by its application to actual environmental policy-making support.

PL

W artykule przedstawiono nowe osiągnięcia w dziedzinach matematyki stosowanej i badań operacyjnych, które są wynikiem badań motywowanych potrzebami efektywnego wspomagania procesów decyzyjnych związanych z problemami środowiska naturalnego. Takie wspomaganie wymaga współpracy naukowców z różnych dziedzin w celu budowania modeli matematycznych, które nie tylko reprezentują zintegrowaną wiedzę dostępną w różnych dziedzinach nauki, ale także wspomagają tworzenie wiedzy użytecznej dla podejmowania racjonalnych decyzji. W artykule scharakteryzowano rolę modeli matematycznych w procesach wspomagania decyzji z punktu widzenia decydentów i ekspertów używających tych modeli. Następnie przedstawiono zagadnienia matematycznej reprezentacji interdyscyplinarnej wiedzy użytecznej dla danego problemu decyzyjnego; w szczególności opisano nową technologię modelowania strukturalnego, która wspomaga cały proces modelowania. Ostatnia część artykułu poświęcona jest nowej metodologii zintegrowanej analizy ryzyka związanego z naturalnymi katastrofami; analiza służy znajdowaniu rozwiązań racjonalnych dla instytucji i społeczeństwa, które mają różne cele i ograniczenia. Wszystkie prezentowane metodologie są ilustrowane praktycznymi zastosowaniami we wspomaganiu procesów decyzyjnych dotyczących środowiska naturalnego.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

environmental policy-making; decision-making support; mathematical modeling; structured modeling; knowledge management; uncertainty; integrated risk management; natural catastrophes

PL

ochrona środowiska; wspomaganie procesów decyzyjnych; modelowanie matematyczne; modelowanie strukturalne; zarządzanie wiedzą; niepewność; zintegrowane zarządzanie ryzykiem; naturalne katastrofy

• Wydawca: Institute of Environmental Engineering, Polish Academy of Sciences
• Czasopismo: Archives of Environmental Protection
• Rocznik: 2010
• Tom: Vol. 36, no. 1
• Strony: 129--143
• Opis fizyczny: bibliogr. 36 poz., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Makowski M.

• International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria,

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