Mit efektu cieplarnianego

• Autorzy: Boryczka M.

Warianty tytułu

EN

The greebhouse effect myth

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

EN

Global warming is mostly believed to be caused by the anthropogenic factor of atmosphere's greenhouse effect - increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) content, resulting from carbon combustion. The 1990 IPCC Report forecasted the rise of temperature on Earth in 2030 by 1.5-4.5°C (after the doubling of pre-industrial atmospheric 280 CO(2) ppm content, in the 2xCO(2) scenarios), and the 1995 IPCC Report estimated a 1-3.5°C rise in 2100 (taking into account the sulphate aerosols). Climate warming, however, is mainly affected by natural causes, i.e. increased Sun activity and lower volcanic activity on Earth. It is still unknown which portion of the advancing warming process is caused by the results from the increasing amount of solar energy reaching Earth, and which depends on the anthropogenic nature of atmosphere's greenhouse effect. The following factors point to the prevalence of natural factors: similar regression lines of standardised Sun activity values (Wolf's numbers) and air temperature in Warsaw between 1779-2000, synchronic variations of mean Northern Hemisphere air temperature between 1856-2002, 11-year running means of Wolf's numbers, synchronic fluctuations of Wolf's numbers and centre of mass position of the four biggest planets, and weak correlation between extreme air temperatures and CO(2) concentration evaluated based on carbon combustion amount. Further evidence of natural causes for climate warmings comes from the synchronicity of changes in carbon dioxide concentration and paleotemperature within the last 160 000 years and 450 000 years, reconstructed basing on Antarctic ice cores. Warmings occur every 100 000 years. They are triggered by solar radiation increase in large latitudes, resulting from changes in Earth's orbit and Earth's axis slant (based on the commonly accepted Milankovic theory). "Parallelism" of changes in CO(2) concentration and paleotemperature indicates that the atmospheric carbon dioxide content is shaped by sine changes of solar radiation reaching Earth - through fluctuations of ocean temperatures. Hence, it is more credible to claim that "atmospheric CO(2) concentration increases along with the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth (i.e. when it gets warmer)"

Słowa kluczowe

PL

zmiany klimatu; efekt cieplarniany

EN

climate variability; greenhouse effect

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwa Geofizyczne ; Komitet Geofizyki PAN
• Czasopismo: Przegląd Geofizyczny
• Rocznik: 2004
• Tom: Z. 1-2
• Strony: 43--56
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 18 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Boryczka M.

• Zakład Klimatologii UW

Bibliografia

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