Methodology of forecasting and forecast of demand for energy carriers by lorries in Poland up to the year 2020 (part I)

• Autorzy: Giernalczyk M. , Gis W. , Menes E. , Waśkiewicz J.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Discussed methodology of forecasting and forecast of demand for energy carriers have been presented in two parts. In this part has been give forecast of freight road transport volumes up to the year 2020, estimated structure of the fleet in the initial period of the forecast and variant forecast of the fleet size and its structure according to categories and age. In second part has been given forecast of demand for energy carriers by lorries. The forecast of freight road transport volumes has been developed through an innovative application of the expert cross-influence method. It was assumed that economic and social events exerting a particularly strong influence on the future development of freight road transport volumes in Poland currently are and will continue to be in the future as follows: economic development of the state, changes in the structure of GDP production, development of the international exchange of goods, increase in investment and domestic consumption, decrease in material consumption and energy consumption of the production, development and modernization of road infrastructure and rail transport, internalization of transport external costs, changes in spatial arrangement of production, storage and consumption. The forecast of transport included two variants. The pace of growth of freight road transport in 2020 should fall within the range of 147 - 152% in comparison to figures recorded in 2004. As far as absolute values are concerned that would correspond to about 190 - 196 billion tonne - kilometres.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

motor transport; lorries; forecast

• Wydawca: Łukasiewicz Research Network - Institute of Aviation ; European Science Society of Powertrain and Transport KONES Poland ; Wydawnictwo Instytutu Technicznego Wojsk Lotniczych
• Czasopismo: Journal of KONES
• Rocznik: 2008
• Tom: Vol. 15, No. 3
• Strony: 155--161
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 5 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Giernalczyk M.

autor

Gis W.

autor

Menes E.

autor

Waśkiewicz J.

• Motor Transport Institute Jagiellońska Street 80, 03-301 Warsaw, Poland tel.: + 48 22 8113231; fax [phone],

Bibliografia

• [1] Menes, E., Waśkiewicz, J., Gis, W., Research project supervised by dr Edward Menes entitled, Sustainable development of motor transport in Poland, Research project No. 4 T12C 037 28; Motor Transport Institute, September, Warsaw 2006.
• [2] Dorosiewicz, T., Dorosiewicz, S., Construction of the detailed method of cross-influence (method of mutual influence of events), ITS; Research project of the Scientific Research Committee (KBN) reg. No. 8 T12C 038 21 entitled, Connections between economy and road transport - methods, evaluation, forecasts, Warsaw 2002.
• [3] GUS (Main Statistical Office) - Statistical yearbook 2004.
• [4] Main Statistical Office, Transport - results of activity in 2004.
• [5] Waśkiewicz. J., Estimated make and age structure of motor vehicles in Poland. 2003,Vol 2 - Lorries, Vol. 3 - Truck tractors; ITS Paper No 6421/ZBE, Warsaw 2004.